MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21afd6b72c6dbcafe48f551cf7453011c03ea7ced3b496e5856b683e2673f232
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $147,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $147,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 56c | 113,084$63,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,787.83 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 44c | 100,000$44,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,000 | 552 | 53.1%293 W · 259 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 52c | 12,639$6,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,068.58 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Over | 44c | 10,000$4,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,400 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 2,742$1,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,359.17 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 47c | 2,048$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.32 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 48c | 2,004$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.89 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…6c4ebacked Over | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 1,957$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.94 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 1,615$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.78 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 1,000$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.5 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 44c | 909.09$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 384 | 53.6%206 W · 178 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…c2d6backed Under | 56c | 890.13$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.14 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 45c | 844.45$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.94 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 46c | 784.72$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.02 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 46c | 659.04$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.67 | 965 | 53%511 W · 454 L | +18.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Under | 47c | 634.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.92 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 36c | 573.62$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.94 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Over | 45c | 556$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.43 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 48c | 505$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.4 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 44c | 504$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.76 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x648f…bb7bbacked Under | 52c | 372.4$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.75 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked Over | 45c | 362$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.9 | 148 | 51.4%76 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 46c | 296.98$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.61 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Over | 43c | 294.95$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.83 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 44c | 276.17$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.52 | 647 | 52.4%339 W · 308 L | +28.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 48c | 229.18$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…509dbacked Over | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 34c | 207$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 18c | 204.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 56c | 195$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 54c | 190$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 48c | 170$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.52 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 46c | 119.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 49c | 112.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Over | 44c | 110.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Under | 57c | 108.88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Over | 35c | 108.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 46c | 104.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 48c | 90$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf247…59f9backed Over | 45c | 77.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 36c | 66.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Over | 45c | 66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 47c | 64.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 53c | 62.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc11d…0123backed Over | 45c | 58.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 48c | 56.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 35c | 55.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd22…430ebacked Under | 57c | 52.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 42c | 45.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 44.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 308 | 48.1%148 W · 160 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x787b…86c3backed Over | 45c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 39c | 35.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 476 | 46.8%223 W · 253 L | +27.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 40c | 35.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 2,044 | 39.5%808 W · 1,236 L | -24.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Over | 47c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…9642backed Under | 54c | 33.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -8.9wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 51c | 32.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bed…c30bbacked Over | 32c | 32.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…b5a8backed Under | 63c | 28.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc74a…25a2backed Over | 48c | 25.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…83adbacked Over | 49c | 24.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 23.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0882…dceabacked Over | 48c | 22.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 72c | 18.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.