MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb84336652c7bdc1b9015fdf1a2d8fceb209732c1157c3327e5667c273a00b3e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 1,629$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.69 | 712 | 53.4%380 W · 332 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 33c | 1,034$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.74 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 906.53$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.68 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 744.69$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.88 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 589.42$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.23 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 314.31$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.3 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 287$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.81 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 286$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.9 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 278$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.14 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 32c | 244.7$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.6 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed St. Louis Cardinals | 32c | 228.87$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.63 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 76c | 215.02$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 181.75$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.22 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Cincinnati Reds | 21c | 180.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 160.31$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 158$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.54 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed St. Louis Cardinals | 33c | 146.58$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.21 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed St. Louis Cardinals | 32c | 143.94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.88 | 965 | 53%511 W · 454 L | +18.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 129$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.72 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 121.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.85 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed St. Louis Cardinals | 33c | 120$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 90$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 85.06$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 32c | 74.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.51 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 73.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 72.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 33c | 68.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 67.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 33c | 62.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 32c | 61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed St. Louis Cardinals | 33c | 48.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 48.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed St. Louis Cardinals | 33c | 38.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 425 | 51.8%220 W · 205 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 32.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 802 | 55%441 W · 361 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 33c | 30.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa94…b3f4backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Cincinnati Reds | 69c | 28.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 69c | 24.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 167 | 61.7%103 W · 64 L | +15.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…362ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 21.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 18.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.