Tennis · resolved market
Roland Garros WTA: Tatjana Maria vs Elise Mertens
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4695e860aba23476af6e15cf76b4553c179662dffa7272054fa606f57cb5eb3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Elise Mertensof Tatjana Maria, Elise Mertens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9dc8…add7backed Tatjana Maria | 5c | 21,748$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf3…e802backed Tatjana Maria | 6c | 8,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 477 | 28.1%134 W · 343 L | +18.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Tatjana Maria | 6c | 3,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 689 | 35%241 W · 448 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Tatjana Maria | 8c | 2,709$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.09 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52ec…5124backed Tatjana Maria | 9c | 1,794$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +38%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2c…2151backed Tatjana Maria | 9c | 1,300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.28 | 389 | 11.6%45 W · 344 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…11d3backed Tatjana Maria | 6c | 1,007$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.36 | 161 | 33.5%54 W · 107 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x740f…bf3cbacked Tatjana Maria | 3c | 999.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5123…2f31backed Tatjana Maria | 7c | 820.08$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.41 | 183 | 15.8%29 W · 154 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed Tatjana Maria | 13c | 749.31$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.41 | 278 | 36.7%102 W · 176 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…374abacked Tatjana Maria | 7c | 642.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Tatjana Maria | 8c | 607.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tatjana Maria | 10c | 551.58$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Tatjana Maria | 14c | 463.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4824…0be2backed Tatjana Maria | 6c | 415.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Tatjana Maria | 7c | 353.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a3…3850backed Tatjana Maria | 8c | 294.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 856 | 24.4%209 W · 647 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Tatjana Maria | 4c | 291.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558d…180ebacked Tatjana Maria | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba1a…85febacked Tatjana Maria | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 726 | 51.8%376 W · 350 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a8…b1f7backed Tatjana Maria | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 287 | 38.3%110 W · 177 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa41c…6428backed Tatjana Maria | 8c | 205.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…9419backed Tatjana Maria | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 308 | 27.6%85 W · 223 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…83d3backed Tatjana Maria | 7c | 158.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Tatjana Maria | 13c | 156.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8b…5e62backed Tatjana Maria | 14c | 128.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 239 | 32.6%78 W · 161 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Tatjana Maria | 11c | 127$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Tatjana Maria | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b3b1backed Tatjana Maria | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 372 | 33.9%126 W · 246 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Roland Garros WTA: Tatjana Maria vs Elise Mertensthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Maria vs MertensMertens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.