TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Oh My God vs Ultra Prime (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 1

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Oh My Godof Oh My God, Ultra Prime
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$247,785
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$265,218

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $247,785 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 262 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3414…067abacked Ultra Prime34c32,004$10,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,872.9877131.8%245 W · 526 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed Oh My God60c20,783$12,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,315.6117949.2%88 W · 91 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Oh My God59c16,974$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,974.3522757.3%130 W · 97 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27ba…d205backed Ultra Prime5c11,028$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.281050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Ultra Prime21c10,641$2,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,251.8282044%361 W · 459 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bd8…a879backed Ultra Prime20c9,345$1,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,843.6321028.1%59 W · 151 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3aa…1485backed Ultra Prime40c7,934$3,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,166.4611645.7%53 W · 63 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Oh My God80c7,232$5,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,446.3854353.8%292 W · 251 L+32.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Ultra Prime42c5,897$2,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,465.232,83641.4%1,175 W · 1,661 L-12.9wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Ultra Prime41c5,238$2,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,166.352733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4108…9e22backed Ultra Prime42c5,032$2,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,11216034.4%55 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x098b…1fa5backed Ultra Prime40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.983850%19 W · 19 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+19.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Ultra Prime42c4,000$1,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,663.313,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa8…c667backed Ultra Prime40c3,763$1,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,494.536435.9%23 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Ultra Prime20c3,171$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.242,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked Oh My God77c2,898$2,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.453640.3%216 W · 320 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5919…95acbacked Oh My God60c2,810$1,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.442466.7%16 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+44.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Oh My God59c2,714$1,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.171,09752.3%574 W · 523 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Oh My God78c2,552$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.4522547.6%107 W · 118 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4afb…ed2bbacked Ultra Prime40c2,500$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9911535.7%41 W · 74 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4367…e904backed Oh My God60c2,495$1,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$998.172560%15 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Oh My God79c2,161$1,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.4119146.1%88 W · 103 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Ultra Prime28c2,108$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.111,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Oh My God80c2,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40048548.7%236 W · 249 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6135…efa0backed Ultra Prime21c2,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42013037.7%49 W · 81 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Ultra Prime40c1,907$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.7312754.3%69 W · 58 L+8.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked Ultra Prime23c1,866$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.3811035.5%39 W · 71 L-9.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-31%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed Ultra Prime41c1,810$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.1918829.8%56 W · 132 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-17.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Oh My God77c1,762$1,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.0843947.6%209 W · 230 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Ultra Prime40c1,700$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68070456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Oh My God59c1,700$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69764849.8%323 W · 325 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Oh My God78c1,600$1,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.1296350.2%483 W · 480 L+1.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Ultra Prime42c1,500$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6301,15849.2%570 W · 588 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Ultra Prime39c1,500$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.991,47429%427 W · 1,047 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Ultra Prime23c1,481$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.11,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc2a4…02b4backed Oh My God80c1,281$1,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.2366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Ultra Prime24c1,263$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.951,02539.6%406 W · 619 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Ultra Prime33c1,216$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.1558420.2%118 W · 466 L-58.1wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-43%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Ultra Prime27c1,172$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.382,91038.5%1,120 W · 1,790 L-120.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x63bc…4179backed Oh My God66c1,105$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.962568%17 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Ultra Prime18c1,100$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.9769756.5%394 W · 303 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed Ultra Prime34c1,030$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.8119948.2%96 W · 103 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f79…f7f7backed Ultra Prime43c1,000$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4251163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.25per pick39cpaid+85.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1ca4…f2d4backed Oh My God59c999.99$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+36.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56bd…e58dbacked Ultra Prime31c999.98$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31028655.9%160 W · 126 L+10.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e64…89c3backed Ultra Prime41c964.06$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40011032.7%36 W · 74 L-11.1wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf740…cf50backed Ultra Prime18c961.11$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1739546.3%44 W · 51 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f30…3aeebacked Oh My God79c929.42$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.1814949%73 W · 76 L-13.6wins-0.09per pick58cpaid-18%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Ultra Prime40c881.22$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.441,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f0e…7397backed Oh My God59c880.47$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.9916945%76 W · 93 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24f1…537cbacked Oh My God60c854.4$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.766048.3%29 W · 31 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Ultra Prime40c835.2$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.0842735.4%151 W · 276 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Oh My God76c740$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.0411141.4%46 W · 65 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Ultra Prime41c740$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.42,01258.1%1,168 W · 844 L+84.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed Oh My God59c720.34$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.3431838.1%121 W · 197 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Oh My God75c677$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.242250%211 W · 211 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Oh My God62c669.9$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.411,15568.1%786 W · 369 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Ultra Prime42c649.97$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.991,45613.2%192 W · 1,264 L-111.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-35.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Ultra Prime40c641.1$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.442,36731.9%756 W · 1,611 L+41.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Oh My God74c633$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.913444.8%60 W · 74 L+12.8wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+29.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Oh My God80c600$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12078549.9%392 W · 393 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eb3…4d75backed Oh My God59c599.88$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.9561055.7%340 W · 270 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Ultra Prime42c584.33$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.9974250.5%375 W · 367 L-1.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Oh My God72c579.53$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.281,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Oh My God80c565.42$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.082,52147.3%1,193 W · 1,328 L-34.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9a7…374abacked Oh My God74c555.17$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.811957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x93af…32abbacked Ultra Prime42c534.29$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.1419645.9%90 W · 106 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc91…ca4bbacked Oh My God62c519.63$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.631546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x17b9…430dbacked Ultra Prime42c509.52$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21413747.4%65 W · 72 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Oh My God60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2004852.1%25 W · 23 L-0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5316…1d07backed Ultra Prime41c500$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20529240.1%117 W · 175 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ac8…45c4backed Oh My God60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20051044.9%229 W · 281 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Ultra Prime41c500$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2051,41243.8%618 W · 794 L-3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked Oh My God58c500$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21095951.3%492 W · 467 L+42.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xabe0…0263backed Ultra Prime41c499.99$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2055349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Ultra Prime40c499.99$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2024327.9%12 W · 31 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Ultra Prime41c494$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.5447933.2%159 W · 320 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0341…a679backed Ultra Prime41c489.67$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20219042.1%80 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed Ultra Prime42c476.19$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20039541.3%163 W · 232 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Ultra Prime41c460.68$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.881,61643.8%708 W · 908 L-74.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0fc5…e3b9backed Oh My God66c456.31$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.3115759.9%94 W · 63 L-12.8wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-12.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x49a6…a658backed Oh My God69c436.52$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.5250051.6%258 W · 242 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec41…1134backed Ultra Prime41c400$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16424655.7%137 W · 109 L+12.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0657…3a78backed Oh My God60c376.81$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.2422256.3%125 W · 97 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4820…c613backed Oh My God80c376.46$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.467435.1%26 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a84…dd32backed Oh My God60c356.24$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.5785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.34per pick52cpaid+46.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd50c…76c3backed Ultra Prime38c344.13$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13214554.5%79 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Ultra Prime38c333.4$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.1317249.4%85 W · 87 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9f8…fed3backed Oh My God60c304.1$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.641163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2226…de06backed Ultra Prime33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011331.9%36 W · 77 L-9.2wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x260c…7130backed Oh My God57c300$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12923932.6%78 W · 161 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Oh My God57c299.97$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.9986649.7%430 W · 436 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Ultra Prime28c290.76$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.5514228.2%40 W · 102 L-9.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-30.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf368…6499backed Ultra Prime5c285$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.172326.1%6 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-40.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f34…ed6abacked Ultra Prime19c269$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.887537.3%28 W · 47 L-6.8wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-37.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Ultra Prime25c265.65$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.699338.6%383 W · 610 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a3c…5727backed Oh My God58c258.53$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.584146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ebc…e34bbacked Ultra Prime36c252.27$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908041.3%33 W · 47 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+28.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64a8…7bc3backed Ultra Prime41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10047953.2%255 W · 224 L-26.7wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Ultra Prime41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,11435%390 W · 724 L+14.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.