TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Oh My God vs Ultra Prime - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Oh My Godof Oh My God, Ultra Prime
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$305,294
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$360,505

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $305,294 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 235 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc75a…1ab2backed Ultra Prime0c21,687$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.317869.8%77 W · 709 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Ultra Prime8c21,115$1,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,742.32,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked Ultra Prime42c16,999$7,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,139.5977131.8%245 W · 526 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed Oh My God58c12,728$7,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,356.717949.2%88 W · 91 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Ultra Prime43c10,000$4,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,293.7231328.8%90 W · 223 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd20f…2f35backed Ultra Prime11c8,363$918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918.29456.4%53 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked Ultra Prime1c7,637$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.686297%44 W · 585 L-2.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Ultra Prime2c6,666$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.993775.6%21 W · 356 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked Ultra Prime2c5,200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10420546.8%96 W · 109 L+16.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+36.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e23…761dbacked Ultra Prime2c5,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020537.6%77 W · 128 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Ultra Prime2c3,762$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.161,05628.5%301 W · 755 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31b0…8bf3backed Oh My God58c3,731$2,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,567.0215153.6%81 W · 70 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-2.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3b8…b4d8backed Oh My God63c3,678$2,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,370.6943151.3%221 W · 210 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a96…3087backed Ultra Prime40c3,577$1,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,430.7843542.8%186 W · 249 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Ultra Prime39c3,567$1,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,374.9969756.5%394 W · 303 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed Ultra Prime43c3,563$1,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,531.8831036.1%112 W · 198 L-18.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Ultra Prime29c3,220$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.011,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a35…9015backed Oh My God60c3,026$1,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,221.0536943.9%162 W · 207 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43ff…a491backed Oh My God55c3,010$1,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,349.5218554.1%100 W · 85 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+5.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Ultra Prime35c2,612$918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918.291,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcad2…c9e4backed Oh My God66c2,130$1,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.1827248.9%133 W · 139 L-14.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7e2…826cbacked Oh My God77c2,128$1,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.746549.2%32 W · 33 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Oh My God68c1,996$1,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.621,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Oh My God71c1,942$1,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.1781143.5%353 W · 458 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x76dc…a9bebacked Oh My God60c1,932$1,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed Ultra Prime20c1,665$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.1286251.3%442 W · 420 L+51.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xed4d…6a0bbacked Oh My God61c1,653$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.659637.5%36 W · 60 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-27.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4820…c613backed Ultra Prime27c1,638$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4507435.1%26 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Oh My God58c1,536$891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.211,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Oh My God61c1,500$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58579653.1%423 W · 373 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Ultra Prime29c1,427$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.252,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed Ultra Prime9c1,315$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.494134.5%325 W · 616 L+33.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked Ultra Prime41c1,300$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53311035.5%39 W · 71 L-9.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-31%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked Oh My God57c1,268$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.4496057.4%551 W · 409 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Ultra Prime37c1,258$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.0882044%361 W · 459 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Oh My God51c1,161$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.8576639.6%303 W · 463 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Ultra Prime53c1,124$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.862,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Ultra Prime35c1,047$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.171,02539.6%406 W · 619 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb8…e969backed Oh My God63c1,018$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.81,24152.7%654 W · 587 L+5.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Ultra Prime43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4303,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf368…6499backed Ultra Prime3c983.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.532326.1%6 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-40.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fa8…c667backed Ultra Prime41c978.48$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.296435.9%23 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Ultra Prime41c975.6$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40048448.6%235 W · 249 L+12.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed Ultra Prime9c974.08$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.031,13030%339 W · 791 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27ba…d205backed Ultra Prime43c934.25$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.01944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Ultra Prime36c888$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.6878050%390 W · 390 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc91…ca4bbacked Oh My God60c845.26$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.41546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Ultra Prime59c800$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.5784050.1%421 W · 419 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Ultra Prime41c800$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.92,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Ultra Prime32c759.41$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.431,07926%281 W · 798 L-99.0wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-46.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6c4e…6c11backed Ultra Prime4c750$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2736749.9%183 W · 184 L+15.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Ultra Prime44c721.23$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.271,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Oh My God60c685.48$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.1717249.4%85 W · 87 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed Ultra Prime43c649.99$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.4939447.2%186 W · 208 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed Oh My God56c610.11$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.439239%153 W · 239 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed Ultra Prime45c600.31$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.1413658.8%80 W · 56 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe949…33bebacked Ultra Prime29c599.99$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17412854.7%70 W · 58 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed Ultra Prime15c570$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.91,29426.6%344 W · 950 L+65.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a84…dd32backed Oh My God57c534$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.82785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.34per pick52cpaid+46.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Ultra Prime29c526.21$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.642,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Ultra Prime45c505.85$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.0658420.2%118 W · 466 L-58.1wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-43%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8ced…0feebacked Oh My God60c500.17$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.1776955%423 W · 346 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0362…2af9backed Oh My God60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20055750.4%281 W · 276 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7963…78a1backed Ultra Prime41c496.72$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.46825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x12bd…8f48backed Ultra Prime42c475$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.634531.1%14 W · 31 L-6.9wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-38.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Ultra Prime37c469.98$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.8947533.3%158 W · 317 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Ultra Prime41c446$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.213,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x16d8…ba9ebacked Ultra Prime29c438.55$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12611141.4%46 W · 65 L-8.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x006a…14edbacked Oh My God46c432.8$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.823754%128 W · 109 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3351…4e2dbacked Ultra Prime57c426.57$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2448549.4%42 W · 43 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4a7…9751backed Oh My God74c406.76$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.764557.8%26 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x664b…17e0backed Ultra Prime9c406.02$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351097.3%8 W · 101 L-0.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf592…b62dbacked Oh My God62c400$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15268557.5%394 W · 291 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Oh My God59c400$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1641,15568.1%786 W · 369 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c78…aad1backed Oh My God60c399.62$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.621,25154.1%677 W · 574 L-29.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed Oh My God76c399$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.9796149.9%480 W · 481 L+4.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59aa…3376backed Oh My God58c396.23$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.031,13143.1%487 W · 644 L+0.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Ultra Prime40c395.74$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.31,39943.7%612 W · 787 L-4.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9f8…fed3backed Oh My God63c388.13$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.931163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Ultra Prime43c380$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.41,44713.3%192 W · 1,255 L-109.5wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ffb…e82abacked Oh My God60c375$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.25944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-33.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed Oh My God64c365.95$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.7421134.6%73 W · 138 L-16.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d4c…935ebacked Ultra Prime14c365.33$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.613433.6%45 W · 89 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-29.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed Ultra Prime45c360.6$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.6213239.4%52 W · 80 L-12.2wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-27.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3ac8…45c4backed Oh My God63c358.29$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.5751044.9%229 W · 281 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8f…57c7backed Ultra Prime41c344.99$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.455356.6%30 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed Oh My God57c334.85$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.9940232.8%132 W · 270 L-21.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked Ultra Prime42c334.84$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.9653640.3%216 W · 320 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f05…85c5backed Oh My God57c320.35$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.7539861.8%246 W · 152 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x421b…8982backed Oh My God63c317.39$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.393369.7%23 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x096f…5c68backed Ultra Prime27c300$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8121644%95 W · 121 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked Ultra Prime37c299.98$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.991,21848.7%593 W · 625 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Ultra Prime59c293.72$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.5570162.2%436 W · 265 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Oh My God57c290$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.785836.2%311 W · 547 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa485…92a5backed Oh My God58c283$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.866634.8%23 W · 43 L-11.0wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-32.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x64a8…7bc3backed Ultra Prime35c282.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10047953.2%255 W · 224 L-26.7wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x08e7…4f63backed Ultra Prime42c267.9$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.619436.2%34 W · 60 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2e9…a86ebacked Ultra Prime44c264.99$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.8326448.5%128 W · 136 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Oh My God44c260.98$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.5496250.1%482 W · 480 L+1.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad46…df49backed Ultra Prime38c253.91$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.356341.3%26 W · 37 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+23.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.