CS2 · resolved market
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs paiN (+3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46cd393fe18f9b64a5bd536940bcb4c130633d59545b9967aecf0fdf04b8ee2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- paiNof Astralis, paiN
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Astralis | 41c | 1,066$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.68 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked paiN | 59c | 818.42$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.74 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked paiN | 58c | 492.57$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.26 | 239 | 52.3%125 W · 114 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked paiN | 59c | 390.81$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.23 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed paiN | 57c | 270.23$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.2 | 285 | 49.5%141 W · 144 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed paiN | 57c | 260$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.8 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Astralis | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3482…fa0ebacked Astralis | 42c | 179.42$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.36 | 121 | 60.3%73 W · 48 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Astralis | 41c | 116.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked paiN | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…954ebacked paiN | 58c | 95.43$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5df…be7cbacked Astralis | 42c | 95.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed paiN | 58c | 83.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 835 | 43.6%364 W · 471 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Astralis | 42c | 31.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 500 | 51.4%257 W · 243 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…887cbacked Astralis | 43c | 30.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f53…d5abbacked paiN | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 326 | 49.7%162 W · 164 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x118c…3fffbacked paiN | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed paiN | 56c | 20.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 513 | 48.3%248 W · 265 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs paiN (+3.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2paiN won
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 WinnerpaiN won
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 WinnerpaiN won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5)paiN won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.