CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ff157234ece59d1bef80b05592907e307a6f21805aa4965bd082c05f0ce631a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- paiNof Astralis, paiN
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6f2…b422backed Astralis | 42c | 2,407$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f7…60cfbacked paiN | 61c | 1,849$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.33 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Astralis | 9c | 872.26$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.07 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed paiN | 66c | 663.09$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.45 | 126 | 53.2%67 W · 59 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Astralis | 34c | 600.96$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.05 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Astralis | 33c | 563.08$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.44 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed paiN | 67c | 501$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.33 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Astralis | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Astralis | 32c | 400$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…13c0backed paiN | 67c | 390$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.7 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked paiN | 65c | 308.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.81 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Astralis | 40c | 267.34$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.94 | 200 | 47.5%95 W · 105 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…f240backed paiN | 55c | 222.22$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 350 | 54.6%191 W · 159 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Astralis | 35c | 140.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94f5…1d29backed paiN | 45c | 115.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Astralis | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 347 | 42.9%149 W · 198 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e6…ef53backed Astralis | 34c | 80.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed paiN | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 686 | 59.5%408 W · 278 L | +65.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed paiN | 67c | 53.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 420 | 57.6%242 W · 178 L | +19.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Astralis | 35c | 45.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 500 | 51.4%257 W · 243 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Astralis | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 233 | 54.5%127 W · 106 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed paiN | 51c | 37.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 452 | 40.3%182 W · 270 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Astralis | 35c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 590 | 49.7%293 W · 297 L | -31.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3145…fcf5backed paiN | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 127 | 61.4%78 W · 49 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed paiN | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked paiN | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed paiN | 67c | 23.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 239 | 63.2%151 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed paiN | 45c | 22.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 700 | 42.3%296 W · 404 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed paiN | 67c | 21.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bed…fd9cbacked paiN | 70c | 21.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 206 | 56.8%117 W · 89 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked paiN | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 526 | 45.1%237 W · 289 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2paiN won
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 WinnerpaiN won
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 WinnerpaiN won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs paiN (+3.5)paiN won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.