Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46dc1700436b57b3d6271f5faf72f2151c3256e061417134ec9d112ec9584e84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 55c | 536.48$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.03 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked Yes | 59c | 285.53$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.82 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 11c | 221.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 53c | 172.04$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.74 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…4404backed Yes | 42c | 161.54$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed Yes | 42c | 161.54$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.69 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 160.75$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.6 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 45c | 148.07$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 52c | 136.01$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 40c | 115$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 56c | 114.23$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 44c | 107.03$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 68c | 101.88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 70c | 101.02$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 42c | 100.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 43c | 99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 92.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…a592backed Yes | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 71c | 70.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 45c | 63.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 41c | 62.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 59.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 43c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 37c | 52.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 41c | 42.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 71c | 42.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 40.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Yes | 58c | 38.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed No | 70c | 38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 40c | 36.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 55c | 35.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 42c | 34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 55c | 33.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 56c | 27.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 41c | 27.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 52c | 27.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 47c | 22.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 50c | 21.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 21.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 47c | 21.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 72c | 20.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 55c | 18.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…ce1dbacked No | 67c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 72c | 17.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 60c | 17.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 71c | 15.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.