NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Heat: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47247865013e3c5d7907fcbc6bf7307bfdf5910a70565ca9b1d4ebc2d0043f63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Celtics, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48d7…1bd1backed Celtics | 22c | 551.89$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.25 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Heat | 77c | 436.9$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.49 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked Heat | 75c | 153.84$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Heat | 72c | 152.82$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae7…6f6ebacked Celtics | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ec…9049backed Celtics | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea1…6072backed Celtics | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 245 | 66.9%164 W · 81 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d7…e241backed Celtics | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Heat: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-1.5)Heat won
- Celtics vs. HeatCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 232.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 233.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-1.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-2.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.