NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x262851e6ad1739c0a8767ccf55ac410f868f5ececb9c129a83a29d15c4d24e07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,173
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,173 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66cc…7135backed Over | 53c | 7,940$4,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,731.94 | 212 | 50.5%107 W · 105 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 46c | 7,778$3,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,549.52 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa59b…6218backed Over | 54c | 4,842$2,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,227.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf201…fa9bbacked Over | 54c | 4,258$2,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,958.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 3,270$1,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,532.91 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 2,904$1,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,498.47 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 53c | 2,377$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.24 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 49c | 1,993$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.17 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…57eebacked Under | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 51c | 1,614$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.03 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Under | 80c | 1,500$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 165 | 50.9%84 W · 81 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01cc…8b18backed Under | 46c | 1,265$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb076…107ebacked Under | 46c | 1,229$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0c…3403backed Under | 46c | 1,192$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…5abdbacked Under | 46c | 1,156$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…5010backed Under | 46c | 1,119$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fa…1144backed Under | 46c | 1,083$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc81…4ed1backed Under | 46c | 1,046$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acc…74f6backed Under | 46c | 1,010$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 54c | 854.35$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 45c | 800$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 46c | 673$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.58 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb252…56febacked Over | 50c | 606$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.58 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 56c | 446$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.24 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 46c | 373$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.58 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 52c | 316.41$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.53 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 29c | 315.93$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.32 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked Over | 53c | 267$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.49 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed1…efcbbacked Over | 55c | 212.27$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.27 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 45c | 200.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.36 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…12cebacked Over | 53c | 181.77$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.59 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…0e84backed Under | 47c | 180$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.6 | 259 | 51.4%133 W · 126 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6c…fe22backed Over | 53c | 163.71$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.94 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 16c | 111.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.45 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 53c | 100.61$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.31 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 46c | 100.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad0a…7898backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 111 | 37.8%42 W · 69 L | -14.2wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc43d…8928backed Over | 55c | 91.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 43c | 91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 74.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Over | 20c | 72.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 85 | 11.8%10 W · 75 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed Under | 48c | 72.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 55c | 61.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6460…84efbacked Under | 46c | 60.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Under | 49c | 57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2696…c031backed Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 54c | 49.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Over | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea1…6072backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 245 | 66.9%164 W · 81 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…a645backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Under | 44c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 161 | 39.8%64 W · 97 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Under | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Under | 50c | 28.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 99 | 57.6%57 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1616…c0c4backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 45c | 24.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 54c | 23.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…e166backed Over | 56c | 22.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 187 | 57.2%107 W · 80 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47ba…a503backed Under | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 169 | 42.6%72 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 54c | 19.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7081…2d9cbacked Over | 70c | 15.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 232.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-1.5)Heat won
- Celtics vs. HeatCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 233.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-1.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-2.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.