NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x198389e5beae80804fd2ae1e27bd2fc5f52c65147a9dac81cd4ecea8cb8b8408
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 44c | 16,796$7,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,392.3 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 56c | 3,677$2,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,059.29 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…de59backed Over | 56c | 3,251$1,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,820.53 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Over | 56c | 3,000$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680 | 165 | 50.9%84 W · 81 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Over | 46c | 2,689$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.12 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 54c | 2,230$1,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.94 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 56c | 2,213$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.17 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 44c | 2,078$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.71 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 2,032$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.27 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 47c | 1,998$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.66 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 53c | 1,599$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.65 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 1,587$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.89 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 56c | 1,510$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.63 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 56c | 1,210$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.02 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Over | 49c | 1,200$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588 | 166 | 33.7%56 W · 110 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 50c | 531.94$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.4 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Under | 54c | 462$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.52 | 161 | 39.8%64 W · 97 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 47c | 357$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.79 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 56c | 332.14$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 53c | 309.06$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.26 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x240d…a928backed Under | 50c | 192.52$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.51 | 164 | 40.9%67 W · 97 L | -13.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 58c | 149.73$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.61 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 54c | 110.47$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.23 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe681…6e1ebacked Over | 56c | 97.71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4842…b2f4backed Under | 42c | 87.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.02 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 47c | 77.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Over | 56c | 53.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 323 | 46.4%150 W · 173 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Over | 57c | 45.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 43c | 43.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x147d…d65ebacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c0…eb7abacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6460…84efbacked Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7081…2d9cbacked Over | 53c | 19.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389c…0865backed Under | 54c | 18.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…b879backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 235.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-1.5)Heat won
- Celtics vs. HeatCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 232.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 233.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-1.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-2.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.