NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb2508b5741a96c007240cbedbd581bf13385f142373227c77db860e13e7867c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Heat | 45c | 6,376$2,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,869.36 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b07…9d4cbacked Celtics | 52c | 5,050$2,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,424 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +69%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…397fbacked Heat | 48c | 5,050$2,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,424 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Celtics | 55c | 4,926$2,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,227.73 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee0…3045backed Celtics | 52c | 4,100$2,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,968 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8538…e020backed Heat | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Celtics | 55c | 3,939$2,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,787.12 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…bc77backed Heat | 48c | 3,673$1,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,763.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15df…ff29backed Heat | 48c | 3,200$1,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,536 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Heat | 45c | 3,119$1,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,412.39 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09f…d026backed Heat | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6605…88a3backed Celtics | 52c | 2,900$1,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,392 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81a5…10c3backed Heat | 48c | 2,650$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb86d…7727backed Celtics | 52c | 2,014$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79f5…10d4backed Celtics | 52c | 1,949$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Heat | 44c | 1,793$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.81 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…1448backed Celtics | 55c | 1,743$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.2 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6198…f3c3backed Heat | 48c | 1,590$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe24d…38c2backed Heat | 48c | 1,573$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…b948backed Celtics | 52c | 1,567$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48fc…2262backed Celtics | 52c | 1,558$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa89…f003backed Celtics | 52c | 1,553$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4cd6backed Celtics | 52c | 1,544$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x207c…0b7dbacked Celtics | 52c | 1,536$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…0503backed Heat | 48c | 1,523$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1be0…60a2backed Heat | 48c | 1,514$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +66%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Celtics | 56c | 1,371$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.1 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…48afbacked Celtics | 52c | 1,193$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…9ca2backed Celtics | 52c | 1,010$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b32…164abacked Celtics | 52c | 999$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa122…2b8abacked Celtics | 52c | 800$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Celtics | 55c | 663$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.13 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Heat | 44c | 562.32$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.04 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Heat | 63c | 538.64$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.96 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Celtics | 39c | 324.5$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.44 | 161 | 39.8%64 W · 97 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Heat | 45c | 275.69$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.06 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Celtics | 38c | 223.43$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.5 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Heat | 50c | 215.06$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.83 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…bf3dbacked Celtics | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Celtics | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Celtics | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Celtics | 53c | 140$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Heat | 53c | 140$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Heat | 45c | 128.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Celtics | 55c | 121.18$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.53 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Heat | 46c | 111.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcd…43aabacked Celtics | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…1e75backed Celtics | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Celtics | 53c | 94.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc43d…8928backed Celtics | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Heat | 47c | 72.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Celtics | 35c | 70.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Celtics | 54c | 56.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Heat | 64c | 46.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Celtics | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Heat | 62c | 39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ef…9972backed Celtics | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Celtics | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Heat | 50c | 21.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed Celtics | 56c | 18.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-1.5)Heat won
- Celtics vs. HeatCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 232.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 233.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-2.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.