NBA · resolved market

Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 234.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1158678edd0c44d5a9013ef2b4f597e5949ee12561eb7442af2e0a2a04858b8

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 16, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $164,519
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $165,628

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,519 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x360b…982fbacked Over	50c	29,993$14,861 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14,860.95	46	58.7%27 W · 19 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x44d4…1970backed Under	53c	24,125$12,693 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,432.49	167	52.1%87 W · 80 L	+7.6wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under	48c	18,437$8,890 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,547.25	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e0c…3403backed Under	51c	15,330$7,818 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,511.7	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.28per pick	48cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc29…5abdbacked Under	51c	15,086$7,694 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,392.14	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb076…107ebacked Over	49c	14,946$7,324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,323.54	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.9wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x01cc…8b18backed Under	51c	14,462$7,376 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,086.38	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf201…fa9bbacked Over	49c	12,120$5,939 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,938.8	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.30per pick	50cpaid	-63%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc81…4ed1backed Over	49c	11,524$5,647 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,646.76	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.30per pick	50cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	49c	10,719$5,264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,264.4	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa59b…6218backed Over	49c	9,856$4,829 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,829.44	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5fa…1144backed Under	51c	9,508$4,849 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,658.92	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.12per pick	48cpaid	+18.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2acc…74f6backed Over	49c	9,508$4,659 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,658.92	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over	52c	7,332$3,812 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,812.21	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Under	50c	5,000$2,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,500	379	44.3%168 W · 211 L	-10.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7cd…0888backed Over	50c	4,138$2,069 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,069	177	44.1%78 W · 99 L	-7.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a91…1769backed Under	50c	4,000$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,000	321	50.8%163 W · 158 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1104…5010backed Under	51c	3,568$1,820 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,748.32	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	51c	2,721$1,388 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,333.29	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Under	51c	2,500$1,275 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,225	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb86d…7727backed Under	50c	2,323$1,162 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,161.5	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+18.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48fc…2262backed Under	50c	2,297$1,149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,148.5	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.5wins	+0.29per pick	51cpaid	+59.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf35f…64c5backed Over	51c	2,157$1,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,100	48	62.5%30 W · 18 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	58cpaid	+7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Under	50c	2,118$1,059 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,059	927	53.5%496 W · 431 L	+20.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Over	52c	2,083$1,083 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,083.33	507	54.2%275 W · 232 L	+13.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	47c	1,996$939 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$939.43	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed Over	48c	1,969$945 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$944.95	40	37.5%15 W · 25 L	-4.5wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under	50c	1,500$750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$750	2,753	50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L	+47.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Over	51c	1,200$612 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$612	166	33.7%56 W · 110 L	-11.6wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Over	40c	1,160$466 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$466.01	161	39.8%64 W · 97 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b32…164abacked Over	50c	1,023$512 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$511.5	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79f5…10d4backed Over	50c	1,020$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.31per pick	51cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	49c	971.81$476 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$495.62	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7e4…397fbacked Over	50c	952$476 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$476	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.29per pick	49cpaid	-60%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	51c	815.36$416 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$399.83	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdeee…bc77backed Over	50c	763$382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381.5	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.30per pick	50cpaid	-60%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf79a…56c2backed Under	52c	746.34$388 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$358.24	232	50.4%117 W · 115 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under	51c	647$330 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$317.03	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Over	50c	600.01$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea5e…48afbacked Over	50c	458$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	51cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fb4…9ca2backed Over	50c	404$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.17per pick	50cpaid	+32.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe544…3cfcbacked Under	48c	399.99$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208	102	51%52 W · 50 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over	51c	322$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.22	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	52c	308.17$159 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$149	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	50c	307.68$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154.61	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under	52c	305.77$159 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$146.77	410	52%213 W · 197 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	49c	301.45$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.47	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf87b…180abacked Over	48c	294$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.12	165	39.4%65 W · 100 L	-11.6wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-15%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3759…6b3bbacked Over	47c	200$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	98	50%49 W · 49 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Under	52c	200$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	656	49.2%323 W · 333 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x53b0…4daabacked Over	51c	196.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	84	48.8%41 W · 43 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x240d…a928backed Under	52c	192.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	164	40.9%67 W · 97 L	-13.9wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Under	49c	150$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.5	641	39%250 W · 391 L	+2.6wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	53c	148.94$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.52	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Under	50c	120$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	323	46.4%150 W · 173 L	-8.3wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	49c	105.35$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.92	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Under	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	249	46.6%116 W · 133 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Under	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	635	55.6%353 W · 282 L	+9.5wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8046…a845backed Over	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	111	37.8%42 W · 69 L	-14.2wins	-0.13per pick	51cpaid	-28%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0xe681…6e1ebacked Over	55c	100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	37cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	357	39.8%142 W · 215 L	-25.0wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	50c	83.48$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.74	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44d…389dbacked Under	52c	81.54$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.14	413	54%223 W · 190 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6460…84efbacked Over	49c	81.07$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.72	47	36.2%17 W · 30 L	-6.4wins	-0.14per pick	50cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0864…df33backed Over	15c	80$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+1.4wins	+0.16per pick	17cpaid	+127.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over	49c	77.73$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.09	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60df…7092backed Under	53c	76.58$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.99	117	52.1%61 W · 56 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7081…2d9cbacked Over	60c	74.87$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.14	108	57.4%62 W · 46 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over	48c	69.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.55	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Under	50c	66$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.96	689	40.2%277 W · 412 L	-54.9wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3c04…2e2dbacked Under	53c	64.25$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.25	506	48%243 W · 263 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c3c…0696backed Under	80c	57.94$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.87	41	41.5%17 W · 24 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-27%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under	52c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Over	52c	47.59$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.75	1,029	47.7%491 W · 538 L	-13.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Under	50c	42.38$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.19	762	50.4%384 W · 378 L	+3.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9331…0951backed Over	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	42	52.4%22 W · 20 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over	47c	41.52$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.72	1,264	45.8%579 W · 685 L	-10.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	165	46.1%76 W · 89 L	-6.6wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x85f1…2388backed Over	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29bd…80c9backed Under	50c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	186	49.5%92 W · 94 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under	49c	29.99$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.3	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc677…677abacked Under	52c	27.17$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.96	58	50%29 W · 29 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Under	50c	26.62$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.31	509	48.5%247 W · 262 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Under	52c	25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	888	45.7%406 W · 482 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff7…9ab6backed Over	50c	22.33$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.23	454	60.4%274 W · 180 L	+21.6wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Under	50c	21$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.5	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89a4…5f78backed Under	51c	20.41$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	100	53%53 W · 47 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 234.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event