Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47258a3fee50094e9d4a4f061fbc817fa583b17f617afa495aafe27b60017df3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 697.34$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.72 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 283.16$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 267.61$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 190.51$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.63 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 59c | 159.97$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.59 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 39c | 153.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 8c | 145.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 141.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 38c | 131.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 45c | 128.09$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 79c | 104.45$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b96…4268backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 19c | 90.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 57c | 84.66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 75.16$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 60c | 74.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 78c | 69.77$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 41c | 67.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 41c | 66.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x825d…9803backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 36c | 50.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 38c | 42.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 41c | 41.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 40c | 40.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 45c | 35.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf691…3ec1backed No | 61c | 32.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…3cf9backed No | 60c | 30.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 27.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 66c | 27.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 66c | 22.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x395c…b920backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1963…4a4cbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f7…b1a8backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 64c | 19.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 63c | 16.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.