Champions League · resolved market
Will Manchester City FC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4727be40e7b73870465f48a1b4c2892301ab10f3156e72f3e61469708a7a41da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 19c | 3,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 17c | 2,281$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.49 | 190 | 28.9%55 W · 135 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 18c | 1,131$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.66 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 19c | 869.71$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.3 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…f087backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd764…5e02backed Yes | 19c | 421.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…a19bbacked Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…a780backed Yes | 13c | 368.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 17c | 323.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 139 | 27.3%38 W · 101 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb6…76e0backed Yes | 19c | 315.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 19c | 315.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 288 | 40.3%116 W · 172 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x716d…eaf2backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…2f08backed Yes | 9c | 289.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac25…147abacked Yes | 19c | 286.16$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Yes | 18c | 273.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e79…2d68backed Yes | 22c | 272.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…1427backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…418dbacked Yes | 20c | 230.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb2…bc8cbacked Yes | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…4aeebacked Yes | 19c | 199.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed4…8c3cbacked Yes | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa2…bc59backed Yes | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ea…158dbacked Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6410…0751backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64f0…7b1fbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 78c | 106.89$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 358 | 60.6%217 W · 141 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x438c…481abacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb456…1774backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…a7b9backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…62d9backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3264…0de7backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe052…3108backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd30…fed8backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3adf…d8b0backed Yes | 19c | 73.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…b72ebacked Yes | 15c | 72.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc81…4f06backed Yes | 19c | 68.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…a5dbbacked Yes | 19c | 63.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7849…bf63backed Yes | 19c | 57.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 18c | 56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 291 | 34.4%100 W · 191 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54ce…6600backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…75f2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…0f44backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1083…3b83backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b55…b6bdbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester City FC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw?this page
- Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-11-05?No won
- Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-05?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.