Europa Conference League · resolved market
Real Betis Balompié vs. Panathinaikós AO: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47483c4bc90665f4d629b86dc73a61f8f26f9abcc19189bd96d19cb9a32c5d6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,925 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Over | 0c | 11,230$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 61c | 6,560$4,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,530.49 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46e6…d4cdbacked Over | 15c | 3,378$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.34 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 17c | 1,249$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.92 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 70c | 1,131$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.03 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 22c | 1,027$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.25 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…ae7bbacked Under | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.02 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…dba8backed Over | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf034…d5a8backed Over | 60c | 665.45$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Over | 57c | 531$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.98 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b09…2c43backed Under | 50c | 367.04$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 46c | 234.63$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.93 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…30a0backed Over | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -61%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…cc43backed Over | 36c | 138.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 79c | 132.33$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Over | 43c | 121$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Over | 23c | 110$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 26c | 101.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…700bbacked Over | 57c | 68.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 15c | 66.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Under | 77c | 63.59$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 74c | 60.8$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46f…867bbacked Over | 59c | 42.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Under | 75c | 41.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51f…b7dbbacked Under | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3590…68f1backed Under | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd507…f719backed Under | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Under | 65c | 31.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 266 | 47.4%126 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0292…c9a5backed Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9750…7956backed Under | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Under | 78c | 21.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…a58dbacked Under | 77c | 17.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 66cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Panathinaikós AO: O/U 4.5this page
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Panathinaikós AO: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Panathinaikós AO: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Panathinaikós AO: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Panathinaikós AO: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Panathinaikós AO (-1.5)Real Betis Balompié won
- Spread: Panathinaikós AO (-2.5)Real Betis Balompié won
- Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5)Real Betis Balompié won
- Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-2.5)Real Betis Balompié won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.