Europa Conference League · resolved market
Real Betis Balompié vs. Panathinaikós AO: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ba83858d59e27d9421dc001f21e55bf61d9a13cb52f9f021b63949582be85ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,536 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 19c | 5,055$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.17 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…ae7bbacked Over | 78c | 3,847$3,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.34 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…a81bbacked Under | 12c | 1,293$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe2…9645backed Over | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.82 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 21c | 1,252$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.92 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 22c | 1,076$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.29 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…3bd4backed Under | 12c | 666.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…de5dbacked Under | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 78c | 390$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 20c | 332.61$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07fe…4d66backed Over | 80c | 300.74$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.15 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 22c | 249.32$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 79c | 227.28$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.63 | 920 | 50.9%468 W · 452 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46e6…d4cdbacked Under | 5c | 210.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Over | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0aba…1910backed Over | 78c | 192.31$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 23c | 159.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 1,026 | 47.4%486 W · 540 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 24c | 133.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Under | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Over | 78c | 96.16$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 16c | 93.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 387 | 53%205 W · 182 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd71…6714backed Over | 78c | 76.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc474…d697backed Under | 21c | 75.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +117%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf6…09a8backed Over | 76c | 72.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c75…aad5backed Over | 76c | 60.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 24c | 60.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 147 | 67.3%99 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe083…d0d5backed Over | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 109 | 63.3%69 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 78c | 19.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb887…649dbacked Over | 78c | 16.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…887ebacked Over | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaab…aeacbacked Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2aa…2c12backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Panathinaikós AO: O/U 1.5this page
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Panathinaikós AO: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Panathinaikós AO: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Panathinaikós AO: O/U 3.5Over won
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Panathinaikós AO: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Panathinaikós AO (-1.5)Real Betis Balompié won
- Spread: Panathinaikós AO (-2.5)Real Betis Balompié won
- Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5)Real Betis Balompié won
- Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-2.5)Real Betis Balompié won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.