Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca5f1913400d7b22a10ee65e0b3732e686736fcaf347f847dff5b57e5ee8efc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Real Betis Balompiéof Real Betis Balompié, Panathinaikós AO
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,344 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Panathinaikós AO | 70c | 909.35$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.32 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Real Betis Balompié | 35c | 664.73$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.73 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Real Betis Balompié | 78c | 535.93$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.9 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Panathinaikós AO | 66c | 302.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.44 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Real Betis Balompié | 78c | 302.58$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.57 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…dba8backed Real Betis Balompié | 26c | 282.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.07 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Panathinaikós AO | 22c | 275.48$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.87 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Real Betis Balompié | 28c | 216.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.45 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Panathinaikós AO | 64c | 163.31$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.58 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Real Betis Balompié | 75c | 100.19$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Real Betis Balompié | 39c | 67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3d…bbfabacked Real Betis Balompié | 54c | 54.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Real Betis Balompié | 48c | 40.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Panathinaikós AO | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-2.5)this page
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Panathinaikós AO: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Panathinaikós AO: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Panathinaikós AO: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Panathinaikós AO: O/U 3.5Over won
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Panathinaikós AO: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Panathinaikós AO (-1.5)Real Betis Balompié won
- Spread: Panathinaikós AO (-2.5)Real Betis Balompié won
- Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5)Real Betis Balompié won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.