Tennis · resolved market
ATP Kitzbuhel – Bublik vs. Shevchenko
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47637cd40358ee913c652f9358755b80b1b47ed917241a95b87e6b3af1271499
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bublikof Bublik, Shevchenko
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Shevchenko | 11c | 10,439$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156.69 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Bublik | 79c | 6,648$5,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.07 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…759dbacked Shevchenko | 25c | 4,387$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.73 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Shevchenko | 26c | 4,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.99 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Shevchenko | 24c | 2,850$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.44 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Bublik | 74c | 1,500$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 252 | 44.4%112 W · 140 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf909…2b17backed Bublik | 74c | 1,349$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.18 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Bublik | 76c | 1,000$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.23 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Bublik | 74c | 800$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…e969backed Bublik | 75c | 734.07$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.52 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked Bublik | 76c | 657.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.89 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Shevchenko | 23c | 565.34$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.03 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf557…18debacked Shevchenko | 5c | 528.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc559…ac69backed Bublik | 77c | 521.03$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.03 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Bublik | 76c | 500$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.8 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…f48dbacked Bublik | 75c | 401.15$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.29 | 320 | 50%160 W · 160 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Shevchenko | 25c | 399.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Shevchenko | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…5105backed Shevchenko | 25c | 300$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4c…1ca9backed Bublik | 78c | 262.65$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.92 | 153 | 63.4%97 W · 56 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Bublik | 70c | 254.72$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.42 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…786fbacked Bublik | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…3cd3backed Bublik | 75c | 199.24$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed Shevchenko | 24c | 173.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Bublik | 75c | 166.57$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Shevchenko | 17c | 160$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Bublik | 76c | 155.26$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f7…58dbbacked Bublik | 79c | 140$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa486…25d4backed Bublik | 74c | 135$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +388.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Bublik | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Shevchenko | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 85 | 22.4%19 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Bublik | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Bublik | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Bublik | 76c | 89.8$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…3e59backed Bublik | 80c | 75.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Bublik | 71c | 61.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Shevchenko | 26c | 52.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…e494backed Bublik | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 360 | 40%144 W · 216 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2adc…8f9abacked Bublik | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Bublik | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8495…df87backed Bublik | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 102 | 66.7%68 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.