La Liga · resolved market
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4812f3f550689b8f9504428e578a3b1efc3b59493c3402d35a867e440bd8c957
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,157 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 2,322$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.56 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…5946backed Over | 71c | 1,833$1,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.64 | 132 | 63.6%84 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 29c | 1,352$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.33 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee19…555ebacked Over | 69c | 1,100$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.9 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over | 71c | 704.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.23 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 29c | 524.31$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.83 | 428 | 51.4%220 W · 208 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5c…1768backed Over | 70c | 496.64$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.99 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 70c | 489$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.59 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 72c | 400$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 424 | 58%246 W · 178 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb4…7595backed Under | 32c | 400$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.85 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 29c | 352$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.08 | 351 | 48.4%170 W · 181 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 317 | 45.7%145 W · 172 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea1…f17ebacked Under | 6c | 299.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked Over | 70c | 285.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.97 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 30c | 249.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.25 | 1,038 | 48.1%499 W · 539 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 30c | 234.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.45 | 1,081 | 50.6%547 W · 534 L | +11.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 71c | 174$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 265 | 50.9%135 W · 130 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 32c | 142.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…ff11backed Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd162…72aabacked Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 90 | 71.1%64 W · 26 L | +10.3wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 174 | 66.1%115 W · 59 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Under | 30c | 133.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…d37abacked Over | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 28c | 94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 890 | 50%445 W · 445 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…b1bfbacked Over | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 81 | 70.4%57 W · 24 L | +8.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Over | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9912…8116backed Under | 34c | 64.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 30c | 60.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 922 | 54.1%499 W · 423 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 29c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 276 | 53.6%148 W · 128 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…0d72backed Under | 33c | 51.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 247 | 57.5%142 W · 105 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe083…d0d5backed Over | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 31c | 43.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 170 | 32.9%56 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…c67dbacked Under | 30c | 43.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 36c | 37.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96b4…c2f1backed Over | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 223 | 66.8%149 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdefb…79afbacked Over | 70c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Over | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb9…26babacked Over | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9651…0488backed Over | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Over | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 1.5this page
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Deportivo Alavés: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5Over won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 3.5Over won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Deportivo Alavés (-1.5)RC Celta de Vigo won
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-1.5)Deportivo Alavés won
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-2.5)Deportivo Alavés won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.