La Liga · resolved market
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29f7663eab33cf459db337355100d5c34e7314223e582f8645a1670b3bd526e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,975 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 700$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 53 | 3.8%2 W · 51 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 24c | 682.1$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.71 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…e8bbbacked Over | 77c | 651.06$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.06 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Under | 23c | 599.94$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…4b37backed Over | 44c | 560.06$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.63 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 11c | 504.55$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.55 | 177 | 31.1%55 W · 122 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 47c | 420$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0c…04b6backed Under | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…bbb2backed Over | 11c | 364.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.18 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 32c | 359.98$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.68 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over | 76c | 344.41$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.41 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb5…ec99backed Over | 80c | 263.16$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Under | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -8.1wins | -0.16per pick | 68cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 54c | 216.53$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.93 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc474…d697backed Over | 9c | 144.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.58 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b9…70aebacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 76c | 83$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 77c | 81.23$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 247 | 57.5%142 W · 105 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7a…3ce8backed Over | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 46.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Over | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2b…2cd8backed Over | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Over | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 4.5this page
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Deportivo Alavés: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 1.5Over won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5Over won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Deportivo Alavés (-1.5)RC Celta de Vigo won
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-1.5)Deportivo Alavés won
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-2.5)Deportivo Alavés won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.