WNBA · resolved market
Fever vs Aces
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x482b139339bb06d3358938c64f08767fe43d10deec6689cbfd1f8ced927f416d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Acesof Fever, Aces
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6ab…5eb9backed Fever | 51c | 13,686$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Aces | 48c | 4,845$2,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,499.96 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Aces | 48c | 3,001$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,551 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Fever | 59c | 2,783$1,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,645.41 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Aces | 46c | 2,711$1,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,450.42 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Aces | 51c | 2,123$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.19 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Aces | 50c | 1,868$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…9d43backed Aces | 29c | 1,704$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,214 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Aces | 49c | 1,689$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.69 | 95 | 37.9%36 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…0e70backed Aces | 49c | 1,157$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.14 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Aces | 46c | 1,009$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.57 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Aces | 47c | 885.95$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.33 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976c…62b8backed Aces | 28c | 800$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Aces | 23c | 634.95$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.95 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Fever | 51c | 602$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.02 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Fever | 53c | 534$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.02 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Fever | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Fever | 55c | 360.65$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.91 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked Aces | 33c | 353$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.51 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Aces | 33c | 318.79$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.59 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Fever | 53c | 310$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.3 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5b…e79dbacked Fever | 53c | 290$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 57cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Aces | 51c | 203$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.47 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Fever | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Fever | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Aces | 69c | 111$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a45…1405backed Fever | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Fever | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Fever | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bb…c285backed Fever | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.3wins | -0.33per pick | 56cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fa…0a56backed Fever | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Fever | 51c | 80.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5d…c139backed Fever | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Fever | 51c | 61.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9f…59f3backed Fever | 70c | 60.39$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Aces | 45c | 56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Aces | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0516…dbc2backed Aces | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Aces | 46c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4761…c530backed Fever | 55c | 41.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…0952backed Fever | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 82 | 12.2%10 W · 72 L | -10.5wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Aces | 51c | 27.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Aces | 78c | 26.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 232 | 34.5%80 W · 152 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Fever | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0c…04cbbacked Aces | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.