WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x482c7cfe90280abf45393308cd0138a963fc5b50d280611222dc562690bfdb5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Skyof Phoenix Mercury, Chicago Sky
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bcf…c767backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 7,379$3,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,435.9 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago Sky | 54c | 6,939$3,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,224.01 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Chicago Sky | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,249.97 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 4,966$2,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,304 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Chicago Sky | 54c | 2,334$1,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.62 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5d…191dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 1,188$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Chicago Sky | 50c | 911.78$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.89 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Sky | 55c | 841.19$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.53 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…5a1cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 828.4$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.78 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 478.39$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.06 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…5152backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 289.5$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.07 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -7.5wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Phoenix Mercury | 39c | 200.39$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed Chicago Sky | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 161 | 53.4%86 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 185.19$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.19 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x987b…3d00backed Chicago Sky | 60c | 182.52$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.52 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Chicago Sky | 60c | 168.1$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdec…e0e7backed Chicago Sky | 54c | 156.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Chicago Sky | 52c | 154.37$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Chicago Sky | 54c | 143$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.71 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Chicago Sky | 54c | 108$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 164 | 50%82 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 103.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Chicago Sky | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 285 | 58.6%167 W · 118 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 77.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 329 | 48.6%160 W · 169 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Phoenix Mercury | 42c | 74.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 73.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 69.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -8.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 62.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 60.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Chicago Sky | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Chicago Sky | 53c | 40.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec39…6a5dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 40c | 35.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 31.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +15.6wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 23.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)this page
- Chicago Sky vs. Phoenix MercuryChicago Sky won
- Chicago Sky vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 172.5Under won
- Chicago Sky vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 173.5Under won
- Chicago Sky vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 174.5Under won
- Chicago Sky vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 175.5Under won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-3.5)Chicago Sky won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.