WNBA · resolved market
Chicago Sky vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 174.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefd54d83edb9aea966d979ba2b3e809aa8eb9cae9cce4a12a910e7fb0c48c9cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf070…ac55backed Under | 57c | 18,815$10,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,070.47 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 43c | 5,437$2,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,339.89 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 42c | 5,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc8…2f68backed Over | 44c | 3,574$1,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,572.56 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 2,024$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.3 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Over | 52c | 1,171$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.73 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 43c | 807.84$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.37 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 44c | 685.27$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.52 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2e…896dbacked Over | 45c | 631$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.95 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e51…42cebacked Over | 44c | 600$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Over | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Over | 43c | 178$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.54 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 145.47$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 52c | 126$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Under | 52c | 96.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 49c | 94.63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 51c | 69.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 42c | 67.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 211 | 50.2%106 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Over | 37c | 62.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Over | 35c | 60.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 51c | 60.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…4b22backed Under | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +4.1wins | +0.41per pick | 49cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 44c | 56.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 411 | 45.7%188 W · 223 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 56c | 46.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 30c | 46.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 224 | 40.2%90 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 50c | 43.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Under | 49c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 49c | 32.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 49c | 29.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ae…5310backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 44c | 24.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Sky vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 174.5this page
- Chicago Sky vs. Phoenix MercuryChicago Sky won
- Chicago Sky vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 172.5Under won
- Chicago Sky vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 173.5Under won
- Chicago Sky vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 175.5Under won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-3.5)Chicago Sky won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)Chicago Sky won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.