Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x483f3082c65cca866b9156aeae75f9286805f768b3e023e51bdc1aca7b5fb9da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 426.58$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.89 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 401.57$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.87 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 345.69$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 345.42$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.82 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 23c | 257$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 23c | 230.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 29c | 153$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fef…816bbacked No | 75c | 135$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 11c | 112.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 96.17$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 75.97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 23c | 69.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 25c | 66.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 63.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 72c | 56.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 30c | 52.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6957…3d11backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b5…bc45backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 74c | 49.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 72c | 42.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 71c | 41.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 74c | 38.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1374…b067backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 73cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 36.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 28.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 80c | 23.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…1338backed No | 78c | 20.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…7273backed No | 70c | 20.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…6e66backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 18.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 76c | 17.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3959…c30abacked No | 76c | 16.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 74c | 15.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 70c | 15.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 75c | 14.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 78c | 13.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa1…2f62backed No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.