Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4841b469a5f431c0a9d4a8c1258c80894e86d6db7fbf81b63abfaa5f4a7f2899
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 840.77$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 54c | 806.35$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.83 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 26c | 796.53$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.23 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 12c | 644.27$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.49 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…a737backed Yes | 8c | 491.21$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.53 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 4c | 457$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 13c | 443.3$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.45 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…465cbacked Yes | 13c | 384.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.61 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8c…f5e2backed Yes | 12c | 326.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.42 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 323.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.07 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 70c | 291.04$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.17 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86ed…88a2backed Yes | 23c | 254.06$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 10c | 233.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.65 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 51c | 176.94$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.47 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 76c | 170.95$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.2 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 65c | 158.04$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.56 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 10c | 144.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.43 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 141.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.92 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 134.78$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 19c | 125.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.96 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes | 13c | 117.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.87 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 14c | 108.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 12c | 105.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.39 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 30c | 96.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.3 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fa…fa28backed Yes | 13c | 94.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.91 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 53c | 88.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd384…130ebacked Yes | 17c | 84.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.18 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 12c | 83.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.69 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e9…fba8backed Yes | 16c | 79.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.65 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 56c | 79.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 64c | 77.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 17c | 75.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 19c | 67.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.26 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 20c | 54.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2691…70e1backed No | 73c | 39.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 75c | 29.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…e31abacked No | 73c | 28.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked No | 77c | 19.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed No | 52c | 19.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe8…6d0abacked No | 52c | 19.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.