Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc6fb85badf0fad70b73c3bb198c301f45c06c86c5379d8e04264424bc3862be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 65c | 2,281$1,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,482.75 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…7f79backed Yes | 52c | 1,248$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.44 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 25c | 871.93$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.26 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 519.55$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 38c | 499.68$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.8 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 43c | 455.54$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.24 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 56c | 429.04$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.24 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 21c | 391.82$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.64 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 36c | 353.19$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.55 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 49c | 349.82$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.41 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 44c | 342.44$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 19c | 336.62$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 69c | 316.76$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.1 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 31c | 281.2$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked No | 35c | 261.37$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.09 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 40c | 256.48$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.02 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…6c41backed No | 47c | 246.86$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.79 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 18c | 165.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.04 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 78c | 159.04$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.31 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 9c | 144$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 41c | 139.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 52c | 139.96$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.39 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 58c | 136.5$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.33 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 132.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.49 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2c…af6cbacked No | 60c | 124.28$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed No | 50c | 124.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.34 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 61c | 118.48$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 34c | 113.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.23 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 55c | 112.34$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 79c | 92.72$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 47c | 82.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 60c | 80.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 42c | 80.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 37c | 77.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 51c | 73.54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.33 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 40c | 69.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 29c | 68.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc92b…a1c4backed Yes | 62c | 68.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 68.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 73c | 68.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 51c | 64.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 48c | 64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 76c | 63.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 43c | 58.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 50c | 56.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 79c | 53.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 71c | 53.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 32c | 50.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 44c | 50.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 47c | 50.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 55c | 50.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9693…bc1cbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…b0aebacked No | 23c | 49.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Yes | 45c | 48.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 52c | 48.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 39c | 48.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 36c | 46.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd011…0b65backed No | 56c | 46.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 54c | 43.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 44c | 43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558a…9fbebacked Yes | 76c | 39.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 59c | 39.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 46c | 38.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a8…7e66backed Yes | 71c | 37.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 42c | 35.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 36c | 35.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc7…e29cbacked Yes | 48c | 31.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 38c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef7e…aee8backed Yes | 38c | 30.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 70c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed No | 70c | 29.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 49c | 29.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…e7b8backed Yes | 51c | 28.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 52c | 28.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1df…3d5dbacked Yes | 42c | 28.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 52c | 27.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 67c | 26.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 58c | 24.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…89bcbacked Yes | 49c | 24.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c31…9450backed Yes | 46c | 23.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 62c | 21.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x136a…70e8backed Yes | 53c | 21.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…7aa0backed No | 49c | 21.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb5…3253backed No | 54c | 20.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 56c | 20.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 60c | 19.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 67c | 19.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 60c | 19.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 62c | 19.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 58c | 18.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 80c | 18.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…6e24backed No | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -10.9wins | -0.32per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…875bbacked No | 68c | 15.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.