TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,668
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,267

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,668 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes65c2,281$1,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,482.7565749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5680…7f79backed Yes52c1,248$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.442962.1%18 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x19e1…976dbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101911%2 W · 189 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes25c871.93$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.265,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes39c519.55$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.5417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No38c499.68$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.84,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes43c455.54$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.244,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf55f…8e92backed No56c429.04$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.2416548.5%80 W · 85 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No21c391.82$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.6465625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes36c353.19$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.551,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No49c349.82$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.412,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No44c342.44$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.88,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No19c336.62$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.9812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes69c316.76$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.125549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked No31c281.2$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19354043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked No35c261.37$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.0933243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes40c256.48$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.021,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…6c41backed No47c246.86$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.796241.9%26 W · 36 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No18c165.55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.0452155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes78c159.04$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.311,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes9c144$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9612235.2%43 W · 79 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes41c139.97$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.391,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ea…b265backed Yes52c139.96$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.3921142.7%90 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x579a…9908backed No58c136.5$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.3312154.5%66 W · 55 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No17c132.46$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.497,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1a2c…af6cbacked No60c124.28$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.681952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a7…9c23backed No50c124.22$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.3417838.8%69 W · 109 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes61c118.48$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.0412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No34c113.31$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.234,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No55c112.34$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.182,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaafc…ec67backed Yes79c92.72$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4444757.3%256 W · 191 L+53.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes47c82.38$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.987,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No60c80.77$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3127167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed Yes42c80.63$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4926566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes37c77.76$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.681,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No51c73.54$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.332,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes40c69.98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6926344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2a1…20f9backed No29c68.6$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.0134057.1%194 W · 146 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc92b…a1c4backed Yes62c68.19$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.132147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No66c68.15$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.239,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No73c68.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3919753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes51c64.29$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5533450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b78…e589backed Yes48c64$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7237942.5%161 W · 218 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes76c63.06$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7837644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes43c58.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1866926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes50c56.02$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7639535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes79c53.84$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4818837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes71c53.29$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8698160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed Yes32c50.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3237533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2155…3428backed Yes44c50.58$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1918845.2%85 W · 103 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc931…7d46backed No47c50.38$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7114158.2%82 W · 59 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No55c50.16$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7452571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9693…bc1cbacked No40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x51d9…b0aebacked No23c49.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.122070%14 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+35.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bbf…7ce5backed Yes45c48.18$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.592638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes52c48.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8557232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes39c48.05$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7811044.5%49 W · 61 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes36c46.8$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8734934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd011…0b65backed No56c46.39$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.413253.1%17 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa22f…af41backed No54c43.68$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2912057.5%69 W · 51 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No44c43$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.082,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x558a…9fbebacked Yes76c39.59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.26742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No59c39.16$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9198571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce5d…5b70backed Yes46c38.07$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.48632.6%28 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1a8…7e66backed Yes71c37.22$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.362147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes42c35.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0928648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No36c35.63$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7699961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcc7…e29cbacked Yes48c31.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.03250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes38c31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7833139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef7e…aee8backed Yes38c30.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.662944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No70c29.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0354966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x890d…7522backed No70c29.1$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7310652.8%56 W · 50 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c31…68a1backed No49c29.04$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9119547.2%92 W · 103 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5368…e7b8backed Yes51c28.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.791752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No52c28.92$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8863656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1df…3d5dbacked Yes42c28.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.871643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a1e…9095backed No52c27.46$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1817376.3%132 W · 41 L+11.7wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+8.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No67c26.97$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.99959.6%59 W · 40 L-5.8wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed No58c24.78$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4155538.4%213 W · 342 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x843d…89bcbacked Yes49c24.21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.863661.1%22 W · 14 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c31…9450backed Yes46c23.92$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+35.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe01…b8aebacked No62c21.9$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2426458.7%155 W · 109 L-20.5wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x136a…70e8backed Yes53c21.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.612770.4%19 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2725…7aa0backed No49c21.79$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.18825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-55.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9eb5…3253backed No54c20.8$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.671478.6%11 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick68cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed No56c20.73$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1811652.6%61 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No60c19.49$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8993734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No67c19.34$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.381,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes60c19.28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.637932.9%26 W · 53 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd088…a3eabacked No62c19.24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.37972.2%57 W · 22 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x914b…b84abacked No58c18.59$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.817650%38 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes80c18.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6729770.4%209 W · 88 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f2c…6e24backed No61c17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.633423.5%8 W · 26 L-10.9wins-0.32per pick56cpaid-2.2%equal weight29-0.18 edge/pick
0x87fe…875bbacked No68c15.65$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.064456.8%25 W · 19 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-14.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.