TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,275
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,422

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,275 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0a19…3c95backed Yes40c1,779$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.7642857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes39c390.95$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.21,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked No66c379.78$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.4954043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes19c342.85$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.125,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes38c341.2$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.368,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed No58c335.62$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.1653437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c8c…f5e2backed No65c295.3$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.222729.6%8 W · 19 L-4.3wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-27.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes46c251.56$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.91,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes42c217.88$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.22,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No55c199.96$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.281,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes41c175.57$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.139,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No62c173.63$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.692,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb2c…d68fbacked No62c155.01$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.781323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick42cpaid-66%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf49…2486backed Yes25c149.65$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1515545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No60c148.65$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.842,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No63c121.22$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.8534250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes45c114.09$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5133450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes33c113.11$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes41c108.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.679,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9003…4c59backed Yes38c107.91$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.268531.8%27 W · 58 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes38c102.69$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.247,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4425549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No60c99.98$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.294,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cad…e203backed Yes36c95.09$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.234035%14 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed Yes41c95$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9531542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes46c94.65$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9849941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes21c91.64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.141,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x879e…e339backed No55c88.23$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.617555.4%97 W · 78 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes32c85.22$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4317838.8%69 W · 109 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x919d…d88cbacked Yes37c84.87$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3514544.8%65 W · 80 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes33c83.34$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3739535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74ea…b265backed Yes45c81.46$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7121142.7%90 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes38c79.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.893,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff3…a737backed Yes47c79.16$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.926041.7%25 W · 35 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+9.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1b78…e589backed Yes33c78.4$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8137942.5%161 W · 218 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No68c75.92$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2927167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No60c74.02$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.411,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d0d…6b9cbacked Yes46c73.83$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.24714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-70.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed Yes43c69.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7140739.3%160 W · 247 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No58c68.01$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.845162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed Yes38c65.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9953547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf55f…8e92backed No58c65.73$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8116548.5%80 W · 85 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf7c4…1096backed Yes36c63.18$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.772040%8 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bbf…7ce5backed Yes36c53.34$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.132638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No64c51.06$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4698571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No59c50.93$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.881,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x029a…8039backed Yes46c50.93$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.662740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked No69c50.83$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9872952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9693…bc1cbacked Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes44c49.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2270133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f90…4e02backed Yes48c49.68$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6914613.7%20 W · 126 L-19.1wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-44.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No63c49.14$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2472466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed No61c48.81$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8137533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes40c48.26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2665625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No62c48.14$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.172,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No58c47.9$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.121,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ac4…57bfbacked Yes50c47.27$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.761643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-28.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes43c47.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1934934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes27c46.76$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4951321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No54c45.75$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked Yes40c45.25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2793734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe00a…330ebacked Yes43c44.06$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8620750.2%104 W · 103 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x890d…7522backed Yes42c43.58$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3410652.8%56 W · 50 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.626344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes41c39.52$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc92b…a1c4backed Yes43c39.51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.072147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes45c37.53$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0232352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No69c34.78$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7840777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x914b…b84abacked No51c34.53$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.927650%38 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No63c34.26$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.691,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked Yes40c34.01$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7119059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb740…eabbbacked No60c33.6$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4423923.4%56 W · 183 L-17.1wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-30.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No64c29.37$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5122675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No61c29.18$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.363656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e08…59d2backed Yes46c28.38$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.055644.6%25 W · 31 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No63c27.71$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1652571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No61c27.18$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6648672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f6…eadabacked No63c25.59$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3616575.8%125 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed No57c25.34$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9955538.4%213 W · 342 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb060…9572backed Yes41c24.47$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.039750.5%49 W · 48 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a5c…e8f2backed No59c24$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8410736.4%39 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a1e…9095backed No66c21.84$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3517376.3%132 W · 41 L+11.7wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+8.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x625f…5c20backed No68c21.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.929666.7%64 W · 32 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x64f2…c2a5backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.63275%24 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0354…758ebacked No61c19.24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.431643.8%7 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked No61c18.96$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3941460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbcce…65afbacked No61c18.68$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2627771.5%198 W · 79 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6a9…2227backed No65c17.82$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.247173.2%52 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick74cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c04…3d8bbacked No62c17.69$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.759161.5%56 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f2c…6e24backed No59c17.44$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.153423.5%8 W · 26 L-10.9wins-0.32per pick56cpaid-2.2%equal weight29-0.18 edge/pick
0xb423…c178backed No65c17.3$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0526861.6%165 W · 103 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc52a…e37abacked No72c15.55$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3418272%131 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.