NBA · resolved market
Spread: Trail Blazers (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x486eb66b44fe95d98c2823c6c7187fbb1a24ee1b8f4f6a022bf7e46a5f1c40bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pelicansof Trail Blazers, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54fd…ae61backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 10,870$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Pelicans | 56c | 9,843$5,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,331.04 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…d8febacked Trail Blazers | 45c | 7,500$3,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,375 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71ea…a8eebacked Pelicans | 55c | 7,500$4,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,375 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Trail Blazers | 44c | 6,834$3,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,007 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Pelicans | 57c | 6,000$3,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,580.11 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebbc…11cebacked Trail Blazers | 47c | 4,262$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Pelicans | 57c | 3,072$1,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,324 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pelicans | 54c | 2,364$1,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.27 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Pelicans | 58c | 1,912$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.04 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Pelicans | 52c | 1,333$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans | 54c | 443.52$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.12 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b4…e064backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 391.49$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.66 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Trail Blazers | 42c | 189.66$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.66 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Pelicans | 58c | 189.66$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.66 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Pelicans | 55c | 126.29$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.29 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Pelicans | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed Pelicans | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Pelicans | 55c | 72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Pelicans | 54c | 64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 52.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 45.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pelicans | 55c | 44.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9324…7e95backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Pelicans | 55c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Pelicans | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…6a30backed Pelicans | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Pelicans | 58c | 37.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 288 | 56.9%164 W · 124 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Pelicans | 55c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…6438backed Pelicans | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb736…1946backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6191…e505backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Pelicans | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd173…56f1backed Pelicans | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Trail Blazers (-2.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-4.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-6.5)Pelicans won
- Trail Blazers vs. PelicansPelicans won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 237.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 238.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 239.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 240.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 242.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.