TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Kingsof Nuggets, Kings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$64,285
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$64,315

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,285 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd43c…04e8backed Nuggets45c54,496$24,508 inLost-$24,508.4311535.7%41 W · 74 L-12.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Kings55c15,951$8,774 inWon+$7,176.89,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Kings55c10,096$5,553 inWon+$4,543.3892753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Kings55c9,920$5,456 inWon+$4,4645,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Kings55c8,329$4,581 inWon+$3,748.011,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Kings55c7,200$3,960 inWon+$3,2402,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Kings55c3,080$1,700 inWon+$1,3803,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f16…0246backed Nuggets44c2,255$997 inLost-$996.6738649.5%191 W · 195 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Kings56c2,144$1,206 inWon+$938.32,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Nuggets45c2,102$946 inLost-$945.985742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d04…9435backed Kings56c1,900$1,064 inWon+$8362665.4%17 W · 9 L+3.9wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+29.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7258…b1dbbacked Nuggets44c1,900$836 inLost-$8362152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Kings55c1,338$736 inWon+$601.9617658%102 W · 74 L+13.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3d6…34e3backed Nuggets47c945$444 inLost-$444.1520542.9%88 W · 117 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Kings55c643.8$355 inWon+$288.342,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Kings55c500$275 inWon+$2252,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Kings56c450$252 inWon+$1986,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x655d…b758backed Kings57c175.44$100 inWon+$75.4424446.7%114 W · 130 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5961…56dbbacked Nuggets51c170$87 inLost-$86.737848.9%185 W · 193 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Kings49c142.64$70 inWon+$72.744,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Kings55c112$62 inWon+$50.2680148.3%387 W · 414 L-3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa916…4f30backed Nuggets51c49$25 inLost-$24.9915841.1%65 W · 93 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-19.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6abe…2205backed Kings55c36.36$20 inWon+$16.364546.7%21 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa98…795cbacked Kings55c30$17 inWon+$13.52055%11 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bdf…9652backed Kings55c28$15 inWon+$12.618357.4%105 W · 78 L+10.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.