NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bdef0154db9652dfab0c4074a1ec8e7b44adb265fd98ac421d0590be840a284
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd43c…04e8backed Under | 42c | 31,913$13,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,403.44 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c94dbacked Over | 48c | 29,044$13,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,102.68 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over | 58c | 20,000$11,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,400 | 297 | 48.1%143 W · 154 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 12,285$5,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,967.66 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 51c | 10,112$5,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,125.99 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Over | 58c | 10,000$5,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,200 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | +13.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Under | 52c | 6,426$3,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,341.6 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 50c | 6,000$3,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,980 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Over | 59c | 5,531$3,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,255.22 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf98c…bf06backed Under | 52c | 3,171$1,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,649 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Under | 42c | 3,100$1,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,313 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 51c | 2,688$1,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,368.16 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Under | 52c | 2,308$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 60c | 1,924$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.69 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 45c | 1,842$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.86 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 52c | 1,622$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.11 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 39c | 1,412$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.91 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 1,369$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.31 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 51c | 1,301$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.31 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 57c | 1,093$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.06 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa499…7873backed Over | 54c | 556$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.76 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 58c | 524.44$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.89 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed Over | 59c | 497.32$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.9 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 48c | 490$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.02 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 47c | 444$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.68 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8d…a108backed Over | 53c | 423$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.81 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Over | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 48c | 188$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.59 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Under | 46c | 181$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.26 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed Over | 55c | 152.73$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.73 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Over | 58c | 87.39$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 59c | 85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Under | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 44c | 68.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 51c | 64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Under | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x500d…7f34backed Under | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 58c | 43.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6abe…2205backed Over | 52c | 40.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43a…f530backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 52c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 339 | 49.9%169 W · 170 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…9f5abacked Over | 52c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dda…5cbbbacked Over | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…3ae9backed Over | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…f59fbacked Over | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94db…26bbbacked Over | 53c | 22.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1961…d240backed Over | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9f…4b15backed Over | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Kings won
- Kings vs. NuggetsKings won
- Kings vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Kings vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Kings vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Kings vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Kings won
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Kings won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Kings won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.