NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b7418cff958faebc3efa76b7a1c8bcffee4cec231e0740ff3c3cd6f3ba8ffe2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Nuggets, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Kings | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kings | 47c | 5,400$2,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,847.31 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Kings | 50c | 4,166$2,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,083.17 | 155 | 51%79 W · 76 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Nuggets | 50c | 3,596$1,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,798.17 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Nuggets | 52c | 2,906$1,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,511.12 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Kings | 49c | 2,782$1,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,418.68 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Nuggets | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…0246backed Nuggets | 52c | 1,932$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Kings | 50c | 1,772$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.75 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d17…bc4cbacked Nuggets | 53c | 1,749$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.87 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Nuggets | 51c | 1,529$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Nuggets | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Nuggets | 53c | 945.91$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Nuggets | 53c | 837.74$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Nuggets | 47c | 744.32$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.83 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4741backed Nuggets | 53c | 600$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd509…b06abacked Kings | 49c | 596.54$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.54 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Nuggets | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 238 | 45%107 W · 131 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Kings | 47c | 271.72$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.01 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…3308backed Nuggets | 52c | 269.23$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…283abacked Kings | 60c | 266.67$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.67 | 150 | 34.7%52 W · 98 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Kings | 47c | 264.01$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.92 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nuggets | 47c | 249.67$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.15 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Nuggets | 51c | 205.88$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Kings | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Nuggets | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba50…ad0bbacked Nuggets | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 240 | 55.4%133 W · 107 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Nuggets | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Nuggets | 51c | 196.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.46 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…cf81backed Nuggets | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 189 | 55%104 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2424…a3ecbacked Nuggets | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…b511backed Nuggets | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Kings | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Nuggets | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Nuggets | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb62…d14fbacked Nuggets | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Nuggets | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…32c2backed Nuggets | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Nuggets | 53c | 98.79$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1a…d048backed Nuggets | 49c | 98.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…9790backed Nuggets | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 58.6%78 W · 55 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…f0e8backed Nuggets | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…e430backed Nuggets | 57c | 84.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 236 | 52.5%124 W · 112 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…2ca4backed Kings | 49c | 82.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Nuggets | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ce…5431backed Nuggets | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 224 | 67.9%152 W · 72 L | +13.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…37b4backed Nuggets | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Nuggets | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdc…6d51backed Nuggets | 50c | 63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5e…271bbacked Nuggets | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b2…3886backed Nuggets | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Kings | 48c | 54.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Nuggets | 53c | 52.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Kings | 51c | 50.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Nuggets | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6d…c733backed Kings | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94a2…0c1abacked Nuggets | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f1…025dbacked Nuggets | 52c | 38.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa9…259ebacked Nuggets | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf256…a93fbacked Nuggets | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Kings won
- Kings vs. NuggetsKings won
- Kings vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Kings vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Kings vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Kings vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Kings vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Kings won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Kings won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.