NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa95932f2c6a30e1e973b7d1b47ee1947499dbb8e893534c7267c8b3dd0489232
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Nuggets, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Nuggets | 48c | 17,056$8,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,186.68 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Kings | 52c | 16,123$8,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,739.18 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Kings | 53c | 11,535$6,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,394.34 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0140…9028backed Nuggets | 47c | 10,200$4,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,794 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Nuggets | 49c | 8,102$3,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,953.79 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kings | 51c | 5,468$2,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,653.17 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…8c4cbacked Kings | 54c | 3,880$2,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,784.89 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Kings | 52c | 3,333$1,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.84 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…ec26backed Nuggets | 50c | 3,300$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Kings | 50c | 3,300$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2e…2ad2backed Nuggets | 48c | 2,100$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39b8…e3dabacked Kings | 52c | 2,100$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Nuggets | 48c | 2,082$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.14 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…0246backed Nuggets | 49c | 1,437$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 46c | 984$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.64 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Kings | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Kings | 48c | 905.14$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.75 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Nuggets | 51c | 860.94$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.55 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Kings | 51c | 774.26$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.22 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8d…a108backed Nuggets | 49c | 714.29$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Kings | 51c | 588$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.12 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Kings | 52c | 571.76$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.16 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kings | 50c | 521.51$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.97 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets | 47c | 504$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.88 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Kings | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.96 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Nuggets | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Nuggets | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x059e…4a2ebacked Nuggets | 46c | 330.43$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Nuggets | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Kings | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 274 | 35.4%97 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…06c2backed Kings | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.5 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Nuggets | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Nuggets | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Kings | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Nuggets | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Nuggets | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Nuggets | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Nuggets | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Nuggets | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Nuggets | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Kings | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73da…8c9bbacked Nuggets | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Nuggets | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Kings | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 661 | 53.3%352 W · 309 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc316…778dbacked Kings | 51c | 94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.06 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…950fbacked Kings | 63c | 87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Nuggets | 48c | 86.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Nuggets | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Nuggets | 48c | 74.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…0a5cbacked Nuggets | 47c | 74.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 368 | 42.4%156 W · 212 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x096a…dfa3backed Nuggets | 47c | 74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Nuggets | 46c | 72.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f1…025dbacked Nuggets | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…8174backed Nuggets | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Nuggets | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Nuggets | 52c | 59.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaecc…eb20backed Nuggets | 51c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Nuggets | 45c | 58.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…4970backed Kings | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Kings | 54c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Nuggets | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Nuggets | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x555e…6bb8backed Nuggets | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…b3e8backed Nuggets | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…3373backed Nuggets | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Kings | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ce…77eabacked Kings | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf5…5fc2backed Nuggets | 49c | 22.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf256…a93fbacked Nuggets | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8460…af5dbacked Nuggets | 51c | 21.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Kings | 52c | 20.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d61…ce94backed Nuggets | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Kings won
- Kings vs. NuggetsKings won
- Kings vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Kings vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Kings vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Kings vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Kings vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Kings won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Kings won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.