Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48b96173481acacb5af20dd020cac32635a5af8281b97baa8d330dd54b2c236f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 1c | 2,561$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,582$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad5…2b58backed Yes | 4c | 1,181$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…54e9backed Yes | 7c | 912.62$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.85 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 39c | 760.27$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.4 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 504.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed Yes | 4c | 498.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 326.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 235$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.85 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71d1…ae17backed Yes | 65c | 154.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 40c | 144.87$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed Yes | 11c | 128.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 127.3$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.13 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 58c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.39 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 109.55$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.95 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 100.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9752…62bebacked Yes | 36c | 99.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 66c | 99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 38c | 98.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 90$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 69c | 82.7$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed No | 79c | 75.94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 21c | 69.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 65c | 69.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 72c | 64.16$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 31c | 63.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 31c | 63.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 18c | 62.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 55c | 62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 51c | 59.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 53.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 49.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 23c | 49.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa1…f1e6backed Yes | 60c | 48.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 42c | 47.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 60c | 45.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed Yes | 58c | 43.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 79c | 42.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 41.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 80c | 39.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 39c | 35.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 74c | 35.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 62c | 34.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 38c | 29.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 72c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 56c | 26.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 47c | 25.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 61c | 23.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 59c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 65c | 19.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.