Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87b5818b8434b87cd501e80700be0cabc9ce20261b797d164b17ee0ac301b813
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 2c | 4,002$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.03 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 4c | 1,172$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 6c | 1,035$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.73 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…54e9backed No | 10c | 903.23$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.17 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 45c | 818.93$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.9 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed Yes | 35c | 602.53$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.44 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 379.68$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.31 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 9c | 342.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 5c | 336$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 269.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.34 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 37c | 261.9$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.31 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 16c | 236.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 11c | 234.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 6c | 234.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 5c | 219.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 16c | 167.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 23c | 147.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 11c | 127.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 127.3$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.12 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6f…ce33backed Yes | 75c | 124.08$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 10c | 112.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 34c | 112.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.09 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 60c | 107.74$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…6bc1backed No | 10c | 107$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 39c | 101.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 18c | 101.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.23 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 19c | 100.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.93 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9752…62bebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.7 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfffb…95c8backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 18c | 99.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.45 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 62c | 99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.43 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 35c | 94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 91.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 89.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 40c | 88.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.07 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 37c | 88.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed Yes | 27c | 85.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 25c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.88 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 29c | 83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.31 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 47c | 80.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 14c | 79.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…3980backed No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 16c | 74.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 66c | 62.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 38c | 58.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 43c | 57.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 26c | 56.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 33c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 26c | 42.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…36cdbacked Yes | 46c | 38.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 62c | 37.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 46c | 34.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed Yes | 68c | 29.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41dd…aaa2backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 78c | 28.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…af71backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 69c | 21.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 67c | 21.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 61c | 18.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 16.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 73c | 15.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 77c | 15.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…2087backed Yes | 80c | 13.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.76 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.