MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48bb358f2b0a25beb6ac6ff3faf3b55371979274c9be95ea2fb0a90a959c9fdd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $175,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $182,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $175,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5be…7c6ebacked Washington Nationals | 60c | 114,769$69,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69,100 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 61,059$25,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,325.17 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 18,158$7,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,089.96 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 11,723$5,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,657.98 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 10,638$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,638.14 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e3…ce1fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 44c | 9,606$4,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,427.02 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 7,151$3,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,863.48 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 4,745$2,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,110.42 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 3,519$1,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,678.05 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 2,684$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,434.41 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 2,247$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.1 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 2,100$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 2,070$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.4 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 1,900$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Baltimore Orioles | 44c | 1,500$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…3de2backed Washington Nationals | 69c | 1,455$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 131 | 51.9%68 W · 63 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ff…6c51backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 1,123$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.62 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…06d0backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 1,037$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 178 | 66.3%118 W · 60 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Washington Nationals | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Washington Nationals | 52c | 950.82$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.43 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 911.25$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.15 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 862.16$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.19 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 775.07$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.04 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 577.99$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.13 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 544$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.13 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ad…208ebacked Washington Nationals | 52c | 460.38$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.4 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Washington Nationals | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Washington Nationals | 39c | 312.18$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.19 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 217$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.36 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 215$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.95 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -55%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Washington Nationals | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Washington Nationals | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 199.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 367 | 29.4%108 W · 259 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Washington Nationals | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Washington Nationals | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -8.4wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 156$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.37 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 143$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 136$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.03 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Washington Nationals | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 63.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Washington Nationals | 52c | 49.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Washington Nationals | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…2b2dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 39.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Washington Nationals | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Washington Nationals | 46c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 31.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Washington Nationals | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 67%136 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.