Tennis · resolved market
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Petra Marcinko vs Vera Zvonareva
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48f37d3d5f5043c9ebb0b00b2775f1952fdc3f68bf7b7684a32924ecb2b6d2de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Petra Marcinkoof Petra Marcinko, Vera Zvonareva
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Vera Zvonareva | 0c | 10,077$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Petra Marcinko | 79c | 8,513$6,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,828.8 | 937 | 40.6%380 W · 557 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Vera Zvonareva | 23c | 6,326$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470.44 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Vera Zvonareva | 21c | 5,312$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.3 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Vera Zvonareva | 12c | 4,448$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.71 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710c…78eabacked Petra Marcinko | 80c | 4,135$3,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.19 | 1,040 | 58.2%605 W · 435 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Vera Zvonareva | 20c | 3,515$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.1 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…1c08backed Petra Marcinko | 80c | 3,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | -14.6wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -21%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Petra Marcinko | 78c | 1,194$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.59 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Vera Zvonareva | 22c | 1,150$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.08 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Vera Zvonareva | 17c | 1,065$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.4 | 209 | 38.3%80 W · 129 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Petra Marcinko | 65c | 995.97$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.59 | 217 | 43.8%95 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…3ee0backed Vera Zvonareva | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23e4…e501backed Vera Zvonareva | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Vera Zvonareva | 23c | 895.9$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.84 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Vera Zvonareva | 16c | 878.55$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.44 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Vera Zvonareva | 31c | 808.42$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.94 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Vera Zvonareva | 20c | 706.78$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.79 | 574 | 47.7%274 W · 300 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…235bbacked Vera Zvonareva | 13c | 649.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 204 | 12.7%26 W · 178 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Petra Marcinko | 66c | 586.24$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.88 | 1,161 | 37.6%437 W · 724 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Vera Zvonareva | 22c | 554.77$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Vera Zvonareva | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Vera Zvonareva | 20c | 496.55$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 783 | 50.3%394 W · 389 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…5b79backed Vera Zvonareva | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 205 | 15.6%32 W · 173 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…0c11backed Petra Marcinko | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 681 | 57.6%392 W · 289 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Petra Marcinko | 74c | 368.88$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.1 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2433…99aebacked Vera Zvonareva | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Petra Marcinko | 65c | 345.93$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.66 | 593 | 48.9%290 W · 303 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Vera Zvonareva | 31c | 315.06$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.07 | 1,174 | 51.9%609 W · 565 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Vera Zvonareva | 31c | 315.06$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.07 | 1,226 | 52%637 W · 589 L | +44.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Vera Zvonareva | 15c | 312.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 542 | 49.3%267 W · 275 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc1…b855backed Vera Zvonareva | 32c | 302.08$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.58 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…5749backed Vera Zvonareva | 22c | 278.73$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.27 | 2,855 | 49.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Vera Zvonareva | 7c | 261.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Petra Marcinko | 60c | 258.05$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.29 | 803 | 41.8%336 W · 467 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39dc…fc23backed Vera Zvonareva | 20c | 250$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 1,861 | 44.4%827 W · 1,034 L | -15.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012d…9db6backed Petra Marcinko | 63c | 239.4$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.4 | 849 | 68.4%581 W · 268 L | +25.9wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Vera Zvonareva | 44c | 224.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 128 | 36.7%47 W · 81 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Vera Zvonareva | 26c | 209.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Vera Zvonareva | 36c | 196.4$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.64 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Vera Zvonareva | 38c | 189.35$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.95 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Vera Zvonareva | 36c | 183.08$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 971 | 41.4%402 W · 569 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Vera Zvonareva | 11c | 177$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Petra Marcinko | 53c | 175.02$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.26 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Vera Zvonareva | 21c | 174.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 398 | 45.5%181 W · 217 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1740…529ebacked Petra Marcinko | 63c | 157.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.76 | 70 | 62.9%44 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…ed94backed Petra Marcinko | 64c | 149.25$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 1,458 | 54%787 W · 671 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Vera Zvonareva | 23c | 138.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 2,044 | 53.8%1,100 W · 944 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Petra Marcinko | 63c | 132.18$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 1,959 | 43.7%857 W · 1,102 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…0436backed Petra Marcinko | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 237 | 54.4%129 W · 108 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Petra Marcinko | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked Vera Zvonareva | 16c | 119.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 552 | 43.3%239 W · 313 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Vera Zvonareva | 35c | 117.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 856 | 34.2%293 W · 563 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Vera Zvonareva | 26c | 109.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Vera Zvonareva | 36c | 105$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…fe16backed Vera Zvonareva | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 710 | 21.3%151 W · 559 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d18…6f62backed Petra Marcinko | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 560 | 62.5%350 W · 210 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe37…911dbacked Petra Marcinko | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 326 | 75.2%245 W · 81 L | +20.4wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Vera Zvonareva | 20c | 99.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 2,049 | 46.8%958 W · 1,091 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898a…499abacked Vera Zvonareva | 35c | 99.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x534a…023abacked Vera Zvonareva | 21c | 97.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Vera Zvonareva | 16c | 96.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 857 | 42.8%367 W · 490 L | -23.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…950dbacked Petra Marcinko | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 130 | 43.1%56 W · 74 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…4f53backed Petra Marcinko | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 354 | 44.6%158 W · 196 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e30…d312backed Vera Zvonareva | 38c | 61.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d53…76c3backed Petra Marcinko | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9781…f9edbacked Petra Marcinko | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7967…01c3backed Petra Marcinko | 64c | 42.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 64cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ad…71acbacked Petra Marcinko | 64c | 40.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 129 | 59.7%77 W · 52 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…a963backed Vera Zvonareva | 30c | 34.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0948…1ebbbacked Petra Marcinko | 64c | 34.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Vera Zvonareva | 36c | 30.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc076…d987backed Petra Marcinko | 80c | 30.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x618f…1accbacked Petra Marcinko | 69c | 29.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18d…9c5bbacked Petra Marcinko | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -4.7wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…a6b0backed Petra Marcinko | 63c | 17.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 287 | 58.5%168 W · 119 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff6…0918backed Petra Marcinko | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 498 | 57%284 W · 214 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba1a…85febacked Petra Marcinko | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 726 | 51.8%376 W · 350 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.