MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4901a1e7076a29a7d2b303e229c3ffa4ead81745dcbb3fb8ac44cb2bb4d7c00c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 46c | 7,731$3,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,174.77 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 54c | 7,195$3,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,885.05 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 53c | 1,067$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.51 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 54c | 462$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.48 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 47c | 426.41$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.26 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 268.64$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.49 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 45c | 239.1$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.41 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Under | 46c | 208.02$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.17 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x428d…8cb6backed Over | 55c | 177.44$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.85 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 48c | 140$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.3 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 54c | 107.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ec…2032backed Over | 55c | 101.82$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -5.1wins | -0.27per pick | 53cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 50c | 67.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…0073backed Under | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 53c | 53.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 75c | 50.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 27c | 50.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 55c | 49.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7a9fbacked Under | 45c | 48.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 48c | 42.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 46c | 37.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x093a…e580backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 55c | 35.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 52c | 28.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d5…1ca9backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 27.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 54c | 27.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Over | 52c | 26.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 68c | 14.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.