MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98d8cdf3930a40c63d7304796bdb7e46d3a008b1483ff9616c1a56fbf4ec0ad2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc163…aed8backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 3,801$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 3,061$1,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,194.7 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 2,772$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,801.48 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 2,110$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,371.5 | 201 | 38.8%78 W · 123 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 1,850$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202.48 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 1,475$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.24 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 1,284$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.77 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 1,025$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.04 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 77c | 1,008$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.79 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 999.97$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.98 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 930$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.8 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d26…ca0ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 835.98$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.75 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cleveland Guardians | 20c | 700$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.54 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 654.22$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.66 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 585$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.1 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 580.49$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.26 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 17c | 507.78$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 32c | 495.6$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 27c | 387.61$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.41 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 373$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.68 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 306.11$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.03 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 50c | 257.98$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.67 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 237.65$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.78 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee2…e88fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 227.27$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…950dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 195.12$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.12 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 144$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.04 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 120$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 109$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 100.85$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 90.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 89.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 78.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 75.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Tampa Bay Rays | 79c | 71.01$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 68.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Tampa Bay Rays | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 52c | 57.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Tampa Bay Rays | 79c | 54.33$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 52.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a1…296fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 51.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 50.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 31.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac4…356fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 33c | 31.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 30.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 26.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 24.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 50c | 23.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 22.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 20.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 18.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c5…b5e9backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 15.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.