MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4905f84ce5d723e8a03568b5c6148adc052f7aaa9abb0cb7a3e113598e110402
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,684
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,684 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 3,680$1,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,277.27 | 534 | 48.9%261 W · 273 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 18c | 1,841$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.97 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Boston Red Sox | 18c | 1,157$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.32 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 1,020$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.95 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 67c | 999.98$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.99 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 924.27$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.5 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Boston Red Sox | 33c | 477.01$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.41 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 306.9$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.86 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 227.28$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.28 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 125.15$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.38 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Boston Red Sox | 18c | 99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Boston Red Sox | 33c | 91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Boston Red Sox | 34c | 89.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 85.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…90c7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 70.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 70.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba92…2196backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 62.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Boston Red Sox | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Boston Red Sox | 69c | 59.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 69c | 38.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Boston Red Sox | 66c | 30.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaca…4b14backed Boston Red Sox | 68c | 17.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red SoxPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 2.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 3.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.