MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69cdec7b82041260734d49f1df86e28171f4b01788e018c034a2f6dba473d07e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe9d3…079fbacked Under | 70c | 5,363$3,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,614.9 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 31c | 2,449$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.94 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 22c | 1,904$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.99 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 78c | 1,500$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 41c | 1,354$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.56 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 41c | 1,272$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.22 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.85 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Over | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 119 | 14.3%17 W · 102 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +289.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Over | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 5.6%6 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 2cpaid | +339.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 43c | 873.15$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.18 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 67c | 854.92$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.19 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 751.67$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.47 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 47c | 449.15$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.1 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 63c | 353.25$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.4 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8634…1b5bbacked Over | 43c | 329.05$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.49 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 42c | 316.93$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.64 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.67 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Over | 23c | 250$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +118%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Over | 32c | 246.5$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.94 | 335 | 15.5%52 W · 283 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Under | 66c | 211.03$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.03 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 60c | 195.17$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.87 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 26c | 160$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 76c | 144.74$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 42c | 121.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 31c | 119.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 26c | 85.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 69c | 82.32$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 44c | 71.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Under | 73c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 36c | 61.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 38c | 55.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 73c | 53.45$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Under | 78c | 50.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 30c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d8…7233backed Under | 64c | 33.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Under | 76c | 31.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 176 | 52.8%93 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Under | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…0f05backed Under | 62c | 29.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…a40bbacked Under | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 71c | 25.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Under | 65c | 20.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 76c | 15.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 4.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red SoxPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 2.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 3.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.