MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52b9a87b8f083f111ae38b627cf34b322358f3eed4c3b5239f553d66bc72cd9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Yes | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Yes | 42c | 418.55$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.79 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed No | 58c | 360.28$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.32 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb416…4588backed No | 61c | 326.94$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.94 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 39c | 290.98$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.48 | 503 | 37.2%187 W · 316 L | -42.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed No | 58c | 184.48$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.48 | 346 | 50.9%176 W · 170 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 37c | 135.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 39c | 134.85$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…e445backed No | 58c | 105.17$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9956…44e0backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed No | 61c | 65.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ad…a5cabacked No | 60c | 64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 42c | 50.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed No | 58c | 48.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82e…45dcbacked No | 80c | 43.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb035…d989backed No | 58c | 43.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24f1…6a07backed No | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77e1…0d6bbacked No | 61c | 40.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb8…f402backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0acabacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…1c01backed Yes | 58c | 21.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x590a…c459backed No | 58c | 20.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5d…e049backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Soxthis page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red SoxPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 2.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 3.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.