MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79a69dbff4c04a31ab8fc9368529d43f81526e663dde9426c3a225e296a255e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 4,858$1,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,074.82 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Boston Red Sox | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 119 | 14.3%17 W · 102 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +289.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Boston Red Sox | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 5.6%6 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 2cpaid | +339.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Boston Red Sox | 59c | 957.14$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.11 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Boston Red Sox | 62c | 847$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.14 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Boston Red Sox | 64c | 837.21$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.81 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 470.55$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.74 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 72c | 386.79$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.3 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 315$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.54 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Boston Red Sox | 21c | 310$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 228 | 31.6%72 W · 156 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Boston Red Sox | 28c | 276.43$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Philadelphia Phillies | 69c | 269$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.72 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 47c | 235.48$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.05 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Boston Red Sox | 7c | 196.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 180$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 177.34$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.04 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Boston Red Sox | 29c | 168$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Boston Red Sox | 27c | 159.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 149.21$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.84 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 148.44$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeded…bfe9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 71c | 141.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 130.75$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 125.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Boston Red Sox | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Boston Red Sox | 27c | 74.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Boston Red Sox | 21c | 72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 71.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…03b0backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 50.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…1d74backed Boston Red Sox | 73c | 29.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 84 | 84.5%71 W · 13 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 76cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cc…015bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 24.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Boston Red Sox | 73c | 21.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 21.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red SoxPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 2.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 3.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.