MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49334507da471f53c6172afb78d3de05ceb0a5244bbf4632d128b6fd2a00f9bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 43c | 1,085$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.13 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Kansas City Royals | 56c | 696.59$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.11 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 34c | 660.95$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.06 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 541.38$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.47 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees | 45c | 515.4$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.47 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked New York Yankees | 31c | 498.3$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.06 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Yankees | 29c | 434.67$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.62 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals | 66c | 393.03$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.63 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Kansas City Royals | 55c | 347.61$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.78 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals | 69c | 253.35$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.24 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed New York Yankees | 34c | 241$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.06 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees | 46c | 182.59$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.19 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Kansas City Royals | 56c | 176.39$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.78 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Kansas City Royals | 56c | 176.39$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.78 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Kansas City Royals | 56c | 176.39$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.78 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked New York Yankees | 34c | 167$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.22 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Kansas City Royals | 53c | 160.36$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.99 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Kansas City Royals | 53c | 160.36$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.99 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Kansas City Royals | 56c | 135$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Kansas City Royals | 55c | 132.82$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed New York Yankees | 29c | 110$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.1 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Kansas City Royals | 53c | 80.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Kansas City Royals | 56c | 75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Kansas City Royals | 77c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Kansas City Royals | 72c | 49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Kansas City Royals | 77c | 46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x698c…ddc8backed New York Yankees | 36c | 33.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 32.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Kansas City Royals | 77c | 27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…5710backed Kansas City Royals | 56c | 26.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Kansas City Royals | 58c | 22.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Kansas City Royals | 53c | 22.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Kansas City Royals | 62c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Kansas City Royals | 70c | 20.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City RoyalsNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.