MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x935ebc018e4540eb0dfb05bf1a19403252debdb2657bfa7293f64b2c10f338cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $229,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $229,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $229,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb91a…3987backed Over | 53c | 207,546$109,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109,999.37 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 47c | 166,801$78,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88,404.29 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 47c | 41,111$19,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,788.83 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 2,703$1,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,424.22 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 54c | 2,315$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 46c | 2,289$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240.9 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Under | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 61c | 1,568$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.93 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Over | 39c | 1,535$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.71 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 48c | 1,388$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.75 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 33c | 868.86$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.19 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 55c | 790.73$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.34 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Under | 47c | 777$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.81 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 45c | 769.17$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.04 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 47c | 744$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.32 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da3…2f94backed Under | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 51c | 512.72$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.82 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 509.97$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.32 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 49c | 502.73$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.39 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 54c | 423.98$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.95 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 12c | 412.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 53c | 370$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.1 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 54c | 261.83$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.48 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 44c | 207.96$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.55 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 54c | 185.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.03 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 54c | 169.56$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.56 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Under | 47c | 161$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.33 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea15…a9dabacked Under | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f6…0981backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 158 | 57.6%91 W · 67 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 27c | 88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 52c | 66.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 46c | 64.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 62c | 56.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 67c | 51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c0…5dd2backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 184 | 58.2%107 W · 77 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf90d…9f01backed Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Over | 39c | 27.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 44c | 25.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Under | 47c | 24.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a0…5911backed Under | 46c | 23.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 46c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 53c | 21.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…e226backed Under | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc449…adfabacked Under | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked Over | 55c | 18.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 72c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City RoyalsNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.