MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04137b5409c82e5a21a9f158ee51e28344376855f414af789027c80e61eaee0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals | 45c | 6,433$2,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,876.95 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Yankees | 38c | 6,401$2,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,939.98 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals | 55c | 5,549$3,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,041.99 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked New York Yankees | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Yankees | 59c | 2,689$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.47 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Kansas City Royals | 63c | 1,244$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.53 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed New York Yankees | 59c | 1,060$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.6 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Kansas City Royals | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 861$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.21 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed New York Yankees | 59c | 837.44$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.35 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Kansas City Royals | 49c | 654.1$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.84 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed New York Yankees | 37c | 540.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.54 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed New York Yankees | 59c | 535.57$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.58 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed New York Yankees | 59c | 502.46$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.01 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 44c | 502.45$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.17 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Kansas City Royals | 41c | 411.03$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.52 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Kansas City Royals | 51c | 390$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.9 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals | 46c | 379.64$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.46 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Kansas City Royals | 69c | 342$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.98 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed New York Yankees | 59c | 333.11$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.58 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 295.9$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.58 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed New York Yankees | 61c | 216.96$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed New York Yankees | 37c | 210.81$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.81 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals | 44c | 208.39$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.58 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Kansas City Royals | 63c | 200.19$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.09 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked New York Yankees | 60c | 184.75$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed New York Yankees | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed New York Yankees | 38c | 159$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.88 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Kansas City Royals | 36c | 138.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Kansas City Royals | 39c | 136$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc51…674abacked New York Yankees | 62c | 133$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed New York Yankees | 59c | 131.02$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 108$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 107.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Yankees | 69c | 92.77$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed New York Yankees | 63c | 83.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed New York Yankees | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Kansas City Royals | 48c | 70.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Kansas City Royals | 59c | 65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd764…ae83backed New York Yankees | 31c | 62.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 60.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed New York Yankees | 62c | 52.43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Kansas City Royals | 48c | 51.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Kansas City Royals | 48c | 50.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fee…3d67backed New York Yankees | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New York Yankees | 52c | 45.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Kansas City Royals | 63c | 39.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked New York Yankees | 53c | 37.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Kansas City Royals | 63c | 34.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed New York Yankees | 51c | 34.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44be…76b1backed New York Yankees | 50c | 32.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked New York Yankees | 59c | 29.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked New York Yankees | 40c | 26.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked New York Yankees | 55c | 26.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf45c…5f7abacked Kansas City Royals | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed New York Yankees | 66c | 25.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd030…f3f0backed New York Yankees | 59c | 25.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Kansas City Royals | 62c | 23.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Kansas City Royals | 53c | 22.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City RoyalsNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.