Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x495d879b91cfe6fa051d7a12c0d72092fc82d7210d50b944a707d1df0f8be8cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 45c | 1,461$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.91 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 55c | 934.11$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 54c | 921.18$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.02 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 47c | 496$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.13 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 45c | 321.89$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.45 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 58c | 299.18$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.66 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 45c | 240.23$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.1 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 59c | 204.68$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.68 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 47c | 196.62$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.07 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 46c | 152.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 57c | 119.43$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 54c | 115.97$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.42 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 57c | 107.07$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2432…27ddbacked Yes | 52c | 100.37$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 48c | 97.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 57c | 97.01$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 49c | 96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 50c | 90.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 57c | 87.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 36c | 74.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 73.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 52c | 62.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7071…91dfbacked No | 37c | 58.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 49c | 56.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 56c | 53.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 56c | 49.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 48c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1c…b366backed Yes | 57c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 57c | 40.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 49c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2292…65a2backed Yes | 73c | 37.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 57c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed Yes | 46c | 33.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…c3cbbacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked No | 44c | 31.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb218…6261backed Yes | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 48c | 27.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 44c | 26.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x290e…0783backed No | 42c | 23.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.