Earnings · resolved market
Will Peloton Interactive (PTON) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4965a0c62306941f96d10a2a4ed7449baf17c6ecf4c08c6cfd53d3bdec117163
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked Yes | 39c | 463.57$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.78 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 24c | 399.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0026…1ed5backed No | 64c | 312.49$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…b463backed Yes | 62c | 268.67$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.92 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 57c | 250$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64ee…26babacked No | 43c | 180$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.1 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55dd…8702backed No | 59c | 170.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 60cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 49c | 136.51$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.24 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…b14bbacked Yes | 75c | 133.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf03…ac6ebacked No | 51c | 130$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 33c | 107.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…0cf5backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked Yes | 49c | 102$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefbf…79f6backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…0ea2backed No | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…2e68backed Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed No | 46c | 93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 73.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be4…ffb9backed Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…0297backed No | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8f…5c77backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…1456backed No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd345…9b7ebacked Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34e6…534abacked Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb098…1038backed No | 47c | 50.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb5…d37cbacked No | 46c | 44.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x959f…d712backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef59…4c26backed No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8e…7e80backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…8fa9backed Yes | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 38c | 34.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 48c | 33.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe056…8120backed No | 48c | 30.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…93b6backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…6c1bbacked No | 52c | 23.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed Yes | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3857…6605backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 63cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.