Earnings · resolved market
Will Merck & Co (MRK) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49678123f57453770d58e3917e03afa3154996e5b74b3a593709b0668dc26727
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 78c | 810.1$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.71 | 473 | 38.5%182 W · 291 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 18c | 746.06$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.75 | 772 | 37.3%288 W · 484 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38ee…4653backed No | 30c | 336.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes | 76c | 240.22$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.48 | 29 | 89.7%26 W · 3 L | +7.2wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8118…9850backed No | 18c | 207.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a1…ddbcbacked No | 20c | 175$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…f0aebacked No | 21c | 119$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 24c | 101$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 589 | 38.9%229 W · 360 L | -26.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 146 | 33.6%49 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ac…5a4cbacked No | 19c | 99.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed No | 20c | 59.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 141 | 71.6%101 W · 40 L | +22.4wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 73c | 45.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 83 | 67.5%56 W · 27 L | +12.1wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 70c | 24.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.