TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2024 NBA Cup?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$97,794
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$94,864

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,794 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x53d2…0c3fbacked Yes4c19,643$766 inLost-$766.072646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f85…d745backed Yes4c5,800$250 inLost-$25010441.3%43 W · 61 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes2c5,757$93 inLost-$93.11,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36a6…52c7backed Yes4c3,022$132 inLost-$131.8631125.1%78 W · 233 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed Yes5c2,729$143 inLost-$143.4218246.7%85 W · 97 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8cb…505abacked Yes3c1,190$38 inLost-$38.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes2c953.38$20 inLost-$20.0234246.8%160 W · 182 L+18.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x89dc…e209backed Yes4c889$39 inLost-$39.1110243.1%44 W · 58 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes4c701$28 inLost-$28.041822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-51.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes6c570.85$33 inLost-$33.19586.9%4 W · 54 L-0.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x079a…3ef8backed Yes13c505$64 inLost-$64.17650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes3c343$11 inLost-$11.02397.7%3 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbed…aa02backed Yes15c206.22$31 inLost-$30.7222721.6%49 W · 178 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8251…52d3backed Yes10c150$15 inLost-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bc1…06edbacked Yes13c100$13 inLost-$12.9988335.3%312 W · 571 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.